**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and reduced solar insolation are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds concentrated on a June 16 high of 28–29 °C (combined ~65 %).** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models indicates widespread rain or thunderstorms on the 16th, with daytime maxima forecast in the 26–29 °C range—slightly below the long-term June average of roughly 30 °C. These conditions stem from a moist southwesterly flow and a surface trough, which promote thick cloud decks that limit daytime heating while evaporative cooling from rainfall further caps temperatures. Historical analogs for similar early-summer rainy episodes show peak readings typically 1–3 °C cooler than clear-sky days. With the market already pricing in this suppressed heating and only modest probability mass on 30 °C or higher, the tight clustering around 28–29 °C reflects the consensus that additional model runs or satellite trends are unlikely to shift the outcome dramatically before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?
29°C 36%
28°C 23%
30°C 19%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
23%
29°C
36%
30°C
19%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 36%
28°C 23%
30°C 19%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
23°C or below
$172 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$182 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$303 Vol.
1%
26°C
$860 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,583 Vol.
6%
28°C
$604 Vol.
23%
29°C
$492 Vol.
36%
30°C
$306 Vol.
19%
31°C
$473 Vol.
3%
32°C
$866 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$215 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and reduced solar insolation are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds concentrated on a June 16 high of 28–29 °C (combined ~65 %).** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models indicates widespread rain or thunderstorms on the 16th, with daytime maxima forecast in the 26–29 °C range—slightly below the long-term June average of roughly 30 °C.
These conditions stem from a moist southwesterly flow and a surface trough, which promote thick cloud decks that limit daytime heating while evaporative cooling from rainfall further caps temperatures. Historical analogs for similar early-summer rainy episodes show peak readings typically 1–3 °C cooler than clear-sky days. With the market already pricing in this suppressed heating and only modest probability mass on 30 °C or higher, the tight clustering around 28–29 °C reflects the consensus that additional model runs or satellite trends are unlikely to shift the outcome dramatically before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,458End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and reduced solar insolation are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds concentrated on a June 16 high of 28–29 °C (combined ~65 %).** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models indicates widespread rain or thunderstorms on the 16th, with daytime maxima forecast in the 26–29 °C range—slightly below the long-term June average of roughly 30 °C.
These conditions stem from a moist southwesterly flow and a surface trough, which promote thick cloud decks that limit daytime heating while evaporative cooling from rainfall further caps temperatures. Historical analogs for similar early-summer rainy episodes show peak readings typically 1–3 °C cooler than clear-sky days. With the market already pricing in this suppressed heating and only modest probability mass on 30 °C or higher, the tight clustering around 28–29 °C reflects the consensus that additional model runs or satellite trends are unlikely to shift the outcome dramatically before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,458End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, showers, and reduced solar insolation are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds concentrated on a June 16 high of 28–29 °C (combined ~65 %).** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models indicates widespread rain or thunderstorms on the 16th, with daytime maxima forecast in the 26–29 °C range—slightly below the long-term June average of roughly 30 °C. These conditions stem from a moist southwesterly flow and a surface trough, which promote thick cloud decks that limit daytime heating while evaporative cooling from rainfall further caps temperatures. Historical analogs for similar early-summer rainy episodes show peak readings typically 1–3 °C cooler than clear-sky days. With the market already pricing in this suppressed heating and only modest probability mass on 30 °C or higher, the tight clustering around 28–29 °C reflects the consensus that additional model runs or satellite trends are unlikely to shift the outcome dramatically before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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