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Politics·US Election

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Politics·US Election

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling in the Los Angeles mayoral race shows incumbent Karen Bass holding a lead at 25-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 18-22% and 16-20%, respectively, and 16-40% of voters still undecided ahead of the June 2 primary. In the city's nonpartisan system, an outright first-round victory requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote, a threshold none approaches in current surveys amid a fragmented field of over a dozen contenders. Recent debates have highlighted divisions over homelessness, crime, and affordability without producing consolidation behind any single contender. Trader consensus on a low probability for an outright win aligns with these patterns, as historical LA primaries have frequently advanced top-two finishers to a November runoff when support remains dispersed.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$1,254
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling in the Los Angeles mayoral race shows incumbent Karen Bass holding a lead at 25-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 18-22% and 16-20%, respectively, and 16-40% of voters still undecided ahead of the June 2 primary. In the city's nonpartisan system, an outright first-round victory requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote, a threshold none approaches in current surveys amid a fragmented field of over a dozen contenders. Recent debates have highlighted divisions over homelessness, crime, and affordability without producing consolidation behind any single contender. Trader consensus on a low probability for an outright win aligns with these patterns, as historical LA primaries have frequently advanced top-two finishers to a November runoff when support remains dispersed.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$1,254
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.