Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and associates, driven by the case advancing to a full jury trial in Oakland federal court this week without any reported settlement discussions. Musk's ongoing testimony—now on day three—highlights OpenAI's alleged betrayal of its nonprofit origins by pivoting to a for-profit model capped with Microsoft, but a U.S. judge dismissed his fraud claims last week, bolstering OpenAI's defense amid expert assessments positioning Musk as an underdog. His amended demands route any damages exceeding $150 billion to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than personally, further diminishing settlement prospects. Realistic challenges include a mid-trial compromise or jury sympathy to AI safety arguments, though closing arguments loom next with conditions able to shift rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,051 Vol.
$25,051 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$25,051 Vol.
$25,051 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and associates, driven by the case advancing to a full jury trial in Oakland federal court this week without any reported settlement discussions. Musk's ongoing testimony—now on day three—highlights OpenAI's alleged betrayal of its nonprofit origins by pivoting to a for-profit model capped with Microsoft, but a U.S. judge dismissed his fraud claims last week, bolstering OpenAI's defense amid expert assessments positioning Musk as an underdog. His amended demands route any damages exceeding $150 billion to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than personally, further diminishing settlement prospects. Realistic challenges include a mid-trial compromise or jury sympathy to AI safety arguments, though closing arguments loom next with conditions able to shift rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$25,051End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and associates, driven by the case advancing to a full jury trial in Oakland federal court this week without any reported settlement discussions. Musk's ongoing testimony—now on day three—highlights OpenAI's alleged betrayal of its nonprofit origins by pivoting to a for-profit model capped with Microsoft, but a U.S. judge dismissed his fraud claims last week, bolstering OpenAI's defense amid expert assessments positioning Musk as an underdog. His amended demands route any damages exceeding $150 billion to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than personally, further diminishing settlement prospects. Realistic challenges include a mid-trial compromise or jury sympathy to AI safety arguments, though closing arguments loom next with conditions able to shift rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,051End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and associates, driven by the case advancing to a full jury trial in Oakland federal court this week without any reported settlement discussions. Musk's ongoing testimony—now on day three—highlights OpenAI's alleged betrayal of its nonprofit origins by pivoting to a for-profit model capped with Microsoft, but a U.S. judge dismissed his fraud claims last week, bolstering OpenAI's defense amid expert assessments positioning Musk as an underdog. His amended demands route any damages exceeding $150 billion to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than personally, further diminishing settlement prospects. Realistic challenges include a mid-trial compromise or jury sympathy to AI safety arguments, though closing arguments loom next with conditions able to shift rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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