With first rehearsals underway in Vienna ahead of the May 12 Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final at Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus heavily favors qualifiers like Finland's violin-pop powerhouse "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's "Ferto," Sweden's electronic "My System," and Israel's "Michelle," buoyed by strong pre-party buzz, fan polls, and diaspora support. Running order reveal on April 2 positioned these frontrunners mid-to-late, optimizing televote potential in a 15-entry field where top 10 advance alongside auto-qualified Big 5 nations. Recent stage completion and national selection wrap-ups (e.g., Poland's Alicja, Serbia's Lavina) solidify narratives, but Montenegro's "Nova zora" ballad and Estonia's "Too Epic To Be True" rock could surge on live staging, underscoring the contest's volatile jury-televote blend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final
$541,327 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Finland
100%
Greece
97%
Sweden
97%
Israel
96%
Moldova
92%
Serbia
85%
Croatia
78%
Lithuania
67%
Montenegro
57%
Portugal
45%
Poland
44%
Estonia
40%
Georgia
35%
Belgium
30%
San Marino
9%
$541,327 Vol.
Finland
$339,108 Vol.
100%
Greece
$5,148 Vol.
97%
Sweden
$7,278 Vol.
97%
Israel
$23,271 Vol.
96%
Moldova
$20,012 Vol.
92%
Serbia
$13,803 Vol.
85%
Croatia
$9,240 Vol.
78%
Lithuania
$4,033 Vol.
67%
Montenegro
$8,818 Vol.
57%
Portugal
$35,399 Vol.
45%
Poland
$10,476 Vol.
44%
Estonia
$37,765 Vol.
40%
Georgia
$6,231 Vol.
35%
Belgium
$10,273 Vol.
30%
San Marino
$10,897 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With first rehearsals underway in Vienna ahead of the May 12 Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final at Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus heavily favors qualifiers like Finland's violin-pop powerhouse "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's "Ferto," Sweden's electronic "My System," and Israel's "Michelle," buoyed by strong pre-party buzz, fan polls, and diaspora support. Running order reveal on April 2 positioned these frontrunners mid-to-late, optimizing televote potential in a 15-entry field where top 10 advance alongside auto-qualified Big 5 nations. Recent stage completion and national selection wrap-ups (e.g., Poland's Alicja, Serbia's Lavina) solidify narratives, but Montenegro's "Nova zora" ballad and Estonia's "Too Epic To Be True" rock could surge on live staging, underscoring the contest's volatile jury-televote blend.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$541,327End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With first rehearsals underway in Vienna ahead of the May 12 Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final at Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus heavily favors qualifiers like Finland's violin-pop powerhouse "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's "Ferto," Sweden's electronic "My System," and Israel's "Michelle," buoyed by strong pre-party buzz, fan polls, and diaspora support. Running order reveal on April 2 positioned these frontrunners mid-to-late, optimizing televote potential in a 15-entry field where top 10 advance alongside auto-qualified Big 5 nations. Recent stage completion and national selection wrap-ups (e.g., Poland's Alicja, Serbia's Lavina) solidify narratives, but Montenegro's "Nova zora" ballad and Estonia's "Too Epic To Be True" rock could surge on live staging, underscoring the contest's volatile jury-televote blend.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$541,327End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With first rehearsals underway in Vienna ahead of the May 12 Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final at Wiener Stadthalle, trader consensus heavily favors qualifiers like Finland's violin-pop powerhouse "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's "Ferto," Sweden's electronic "My System," and Israel's "Michelle," buoyed by strong pre-party buzz, fan polls, and diaspora support. Running order reveal on April 2 positioned these frontrunners mid-to-late, optimizing televote potential in a 15-entry field where top 10 advance alongside auto-qualified Big 5 nations. Recent stage completion and national selection wrap-ups (e.g., Poland's Alicja, Serbia's Lavina) solidify narratives, but Montenegro's "Nova zora" ballad and Estonia's "Too Epic To Be True" rock could surge on live staging, underscoring the contest's volatile jury-televote blend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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