**Daniel Noboa remains firmly entrenched as Ecuador’s president following his 2025 re-election to a full four-year term ending in 2029.** Recent activity, including his May 2026 State of the Union address highlighting U.S.-backed security operations and a state of exception extended into June, shows no signs of imminent departure. Ecuador’s constitutional framework for removal—requiring a two-thirds National Assembly vote for impeachment or other extraordinary measures—faces high procedural and political barriers with little evidence of organized opposition reaching that threshold in the remaining weeks. Trader consensus at 99% “No” reflects the absence of scheduled elections, referendums, or credible crises capable of forcing an exit before June 30. While abrupt developments such as a sudden health event, unprecedented scandal, or rapid legislative action remain theoretically possible, none align with current verified political dynamics or institutional timelines.