Recent gold-medal performances by frontier large language models on the 2025 IMO problems have driven the 82% implied probability for an AI achieving the threshold in 2026. In July 2025, experimental reasoning systems from both OpenAI and Google DeepMind independently reached gold-medal standard on the official IMO 2025 problems, each scoring 35 out of 42 points by solving five of six problems under contest conditions with natural-language proofs. DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think result received official IMO verification, while OpenAI’s o-series models and subsequent GPT-5 releases demonstrated continued gains on related benchmarks. These verified capability jumps, combined with rapid iteration in model-agnostic verification pipelines and parallel thinking techniques, have convinced traders that further scaling and refinement will clear the threshold again in Shanghai this July despite occasional last-problem difficulty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
NEW
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent gold-medal performances by frontier large language models on the 2025 IMO problems have driven the 82% implied probability for an AI achieving the threshold in 2026. In July 2025, experimental reasoning systems from both OpenAI and Google DeepMind independently reached gold-medal standard on the official IMO 2025 problems, each scoring 35 out of 42 points by solving five of six problems under contest conditions with natural-language proofs. DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think result received official IMO verification, while OpenAI’s o-series models and subsequent GPT-5 releases demonstrated continued gains on related benchmarks. These verified capability jumps, combined with rapid iteration in model-agnostic verification pipelines and parallel thinking techniques, have convinced traders that further scaling and refinement will clear the threshold again in Shanghai this July despite occasional last-problem difficulty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$5,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent gold-medal performances by frontier large language models on the 2025 IMO problems have driven the 82% implied probability for an AI achieving the threshold in 2026. In July 2025, experimental reasoning systems from both OpenAI and Google DeepMind independently reached gold-medal standard on the official IMO 2025 problems, each scoring 35 out of 42 points by solving five of six problems under contest conditions with natural-language proofs. DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think result received official IMO verification, while OpenAI’s o-series models and subsequent GPT-5 releases demonstrated continued gains on related benchmarks. These verified capability jumps, combined with rapid iteration in model-agnostic verification pipelines and parallel thinking techniques, have convinced traders that further scaling and refinement will clear the threshold again in Shanghai this July despite occasional last-problem difficulty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$5,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent gold-medal performances by frontier large language models on the 2025 IMO problems have driven the 82% implied probability for an AI achieving the threshold in 2026. In July 2025, experimental reasoning systems from both OpenAI and Google DeepMind independently reached gold-medal standard on the official IMO 2025 problems, each scoring 35 out of 42 points by solving five of six problems under contest conditions with natural-language proofs. DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think result received official IMO verification, while OpenAI’s o-series models and subsequent GPT-5 releases demonstrated continued gains on related benchmarks. These verified capability jumps, combined with rapid iteration in model-agnostic verification pipelines and parallel thinking techniques, have convinced traders that further scaling and refinement will clear the threshold again in Shanghai this July despite occasional last-problem difficulty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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