Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to OpenAI not announcing AGI before 2027 because recent developments show continued incremental advances in large language models and agentic capabilities rather than a breakthrough meeting OpenAI’s definition of a highly autonomous system outperforming humans across most economically valuable work. Sam Altman’s 2026 statements emphasize milestones such as AI research interns by September 2026 and superintelligence potentially by late 2028, while revised forecasts from former researchers and industry observers have pushed autonomous coding and full AGI further into the 2030s. OpenAI’s recent policy documents focus on scaling infrastructure and safety without claiming current systems qualify as AGI. With only months remaining until 2027, no verified capability demonstrations or internal announcements have shifted this consensus, though a surprise model release could still serve as a late catalyst.