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Politics·South Korea

2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

icon for 2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Politics·South Korea

2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

Chun Jae-soo <5% 99.3%

Park Heong-joon 5-10% 2.1%

Chun Jae-soo 15%+ <1%

Park Heong-joon 10%+ <1%

Polymarket

$7,433 Vol.

Chun Jae-soo <5% 99.3%

Park Heong-joon 5-10% 2.1%

Chun Jae-soo 15%+ <1%

Park Heong-joon 10%+ <1%

Polymarket

$7,433 Vol.

icon for Chun Jae-soo 15%+

Chun Jae-soo 15%+

$622 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chun Jae-soo 10-15%

Chun Jae-soo 10-15%

$412 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chun Jae-soo 5-10%

Chun Jae-soo 5-10%

$1,718 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chun Jae-soo <5%

Chun Jae-soo <5%

$2,550 Vol.

99%

icon for Park Heong-joon <5%

Park Heong-joon <5%

$1,181 Vol.

<1%

icon for Park Heong-joon 5-10%

Park Heong-joon 5-10%

$492 Vol.

2%

icon for Park Heong-joon 10%+

Park Heong-joon 10%+

$460 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Chun Jae-soo secured victory in the June 3, 2026 Busan mayoral election as the Democratic Party candidate, defeating incumbent Park Heong-joon of the People Power Party by a narrow margin of approximately 2.6 percentage points based on final vote tallies showing 50.53% to 47.91%. This outcome aligns with the market's dominant pricing on a Chun Jae-soo win by less than 5%, reflecting confirmed election results in a race that flipped the city from opposition control for the first time in eight years amid broader Democratic Party gains in simultaneous local contests. Trader consensus on the sub-5% bucket stems directly from these verified percentages rather than pre-election polling. Potential shifts remain limited to official recounts or challenges to specific ballot validity that could alter the exact margin calculation, though historical patterns in South Korean local elections indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.

The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$7,433
End Date
Jun 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Chun Jae-soo secured victory in the June 3, 2026 Busan mayoral election as the Democratic Party candidate, defeating incumbent Park Heong-joon of the People Power Party by a narrow margin of approximately 2.6 percentage points based on final vote tallies showing 50.53% to 47.91%. This outcome aligns with the market's dominant pricing on a Chun Jae-soo win by less than 5%, reflecting confirmed election results in a race that flipped the city from opposition control for the first time in eight years amid broader Democratic Party gains in simultaneous local contests. Trader consensus on the sub-5% bucket stems directly from these verified percentages rather than pre-election polling. Potential shifts remain limited to official recounts or challenges to specific ballot validity that could alter the exact margin calculation, though historical patterns in South Korean local elections indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few tenths of a point.

The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$7,433
End Date
Jun 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chun Jae-soo <5%" at 99%, followed by "Park Heong-joon 5-10%" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" is "Chun Jae-soo <5%" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Park Heong-joon 5-10%" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 Busan Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.