Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law as part of Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purge. No formal charges, trial, or sentencing have been announced in the five months since, consistent with the extended timelines typical for senior PLA officials. Past cases in the campaign have produced suspended death sentences or other non-public penalties rather than immediate prison terms. With roughly 18 months remaining until the 2027 deadline, traders assign only a 9.5% chance of a prison sentence materializing, reflecting the opacity of elite disciplinary proceedings and historical precedent for drawn-out or non-custodial outcomes.