¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?
$5,297,250 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio
$102,338 Vol.
2%
31 de diciembre
$957,768 Vol.
11%
$5,297,250 Vol.
30 de junio
$102,338 Vol.
2%
31 de diciembre
$957,768 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's recent statements criticizing NATO allies for insufficient support in US-led actions against Iran, including plans to "probably" withdraw troops from Germany, Italy, and Spain, have heightened tensions but kept trader consensus on US NATO withdrawal before 2027 at around 11%. Statutory barriers from the 2024 NDAA Section 1250A prohibit unilateral presidential exit without a two-thirds Senate majority or congressional act, requiring 120-day notice and underscoring separation of powers. No formal denunciation process has begun amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and Middle East escalations. Upcoming NATO burden-sharing summits and potential congressional hearings on alliance commitments could sway probabilities, though historical precedents favor continuity over rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's recent statements criticizing NATO allies for insufficient support in US-led actions against Iran, including plans to "probably" withdraw troops from Germany, Italy, and Spain, have heightened tensions but kept trader consensus on US NATO withdrawal before 2027 at around 11%. Statutory barriers from the 2024 NDAA Section 1250A prohibit unilateral presidential exit without a two-thirds Senate majority or congressional act, requiring 120-day notice and underscoring separation of powers. No formal denunciation process has begun amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and Middle East escalations. Upcoming NATO burden-sharing summits and potential congressional hearings on alliance commitments could sway probabilities, though historical precedents favor continuity over rupture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 27 2026
Reuters reports NATO is considering ending its annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, signalling that the alliance is adapting rather than expecting a U.S. exit
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Reuters reports NATO is considering ending its annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, signalling that the alliance is adapting rather than expecting a U.S. exit
Apr 27 2026
Reuters article notes NATO is debating ending annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, but no concrete move toward U.S.
withdrawal – Continued discussion without decisive action kept the probability stable at the low‑single‑digit level.
Apr 27 2026
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was considering pressure tactics rather than a formal exit, cementing the lower
Apr 24 2026
Pentagon email leaked showing officials debating the possibility of suspending Spain from NATO because of its stance on the Iran war, sparking renewed speculation about U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Pentagon email leaked showing officials debating the possibility of suspending Spain from NATO because of its stance on the Iran war, sparking renewed speculation about U.S. leverage and withdrawal
Apr 22 2026
Bipartisan legislation co‑sponsored by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now SecState) amends the 2024 NDAA, requiring a two‑thirds Senate vote before any U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%2%
denunciation of NATO can be enacted
Apr 22 2026
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S. withdrawal speculation in an interview, reaffirming U.S. commitment to the alliance, which helped reduce perceived risk
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Official NATO statements helped calm market fears, leading to a slight
Apr 22 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte meets Trump at the White House and publicly states the U.S.
December 31 dips to 11%1%
has not submitted any notice of denunciation, calming markets and nudging the
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
withdrawal speculation in interview with DW News – Rutte’s reassurance that the United States remains “committed” further reduced perceived risk.
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte publicly dismisses any U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit fears, stating the alliance remains “strong and united”
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte calls President Trump’s accusations of a U.S.
June 30 dips to 5%2%
withdrawal “unfounded speculation” in a televised interview
Apr 18 2026
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit would be “destructive” for European security at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum – Turkey’s strong condemnation signaled that key NATO members were not expecting a U.S. pull‑out, pulling the
Apr 18 2026
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
pull‑out would be “destructive” after Trump threatens to quit over European refusal to open the Strait of Hormuz
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte says he “does not see” a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit from the alliance, downplaying Trump’s rhetoric
Apr 17 2026
President Donald Trump tells Al Jazeera he is “seriously considering” a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
withdrawal from NATO amid the Iran‑Israel conflict
Apr 17 2026
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted Trump’s renewed “leave NATO” rhetoric, prompting traders to
Apr 15 2026
Washington Times editorial argues the U.S.
June 30 rises to 7%2%
“must exit NATO” and explains that a formal notice of denunciation would be required
Apr 12 2026
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) re‑introduces HR 6508, the “NATO Act,” calling the alliance a Cold‑War relic and urging Congress to approve a formal withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) re‑introduces HR 6508, the “NATO Act,” calling the alliance a Cold‑War relic and urging Congress to approve a formal withdrawal
Apr 8 2026
Al Jazeera reports the Trump administration is “mulling NATO withdrawal” after the Iran war, quoting senior officials;
December 31 rises to 13%3%
the story reignites speculation and lifts the
Apr 8 2026
Trump administration signals it is seriously considering NATO withdrawal due to European allies' reluctance to support the Iran war, intensifying speculation but still facing significant legal and political obstacles
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Renewed rhetoric about withdrawal amid the Iran conflict caused a modest
Apr 1 2026
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
Apr 1 2026
Trump repeats in a Reuters interview that he is “absolutely” considering pulling the U.S.
December 31 dips to 10%4%
out of NATO, citing European inaction on the Iran conflict; bipartisan lawmakers issue a rapid rebuttal, causing a sharp dip
Apr 1 2026
POLITICO and other sources report no evidence of formal plans or notifications for U.S. withdrawal from NATO, with top lawmakers affirming the U.S. will remain in the alliance and emphasizing legal hurdles
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Official reassurances and recognition of legal constraints led to a market correction downward.
Mar 15 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is mulling NATO withdrawal after the Iran war escalates, but no formal steps or notifications to Congress have been made, and bipartisan legislation requires Senate approval for withdrawal
December 31 rises to 8%3%
Speculation about withdrawal increased slightly amid ongoing tensions, despite legal and procedural barriers.
Feb 4 2026
President Trump signs an executive order withdrawing the United States from dozens of international organisations;
December 31 rises to 14%3%
media note the order could be a template for a NATO denunciation, pushing the market higher
Jan 22 2026
The Pentagon informs allies it will pull roughly 200 U.S.
December 31 dips to 11%2%
officers out of NATO structures, the first concrete personnel‑withdrawal move under the Trump administration
Jan 19 2026
Trump renews pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending at the 2025 Hague summit, calling the agreement a "big win," but continues to refuse ruling out withdrawal amid disputes such as Greenland annexation ambitions
December 31 jumps to 14%8%
Renewed pressure and ambiguous signals about withdrawal prospects caused a temporary
Dec 5 2025
Reuters reports the U.S. sets a 2027 deadline for Europe to lead NATO defense spending, with officials warning the U.S. could withdraw from some NATO planning mechanisms if progress is unsatisfactory
December 31 dips to 13%3%
This report suggested pressure tactics rather than formal withdrawal, causing a slight market pullback.
Dec 5 2025
Pentagon officials meet European delegations in Washington and announce a 2027 deadline for Europe‑led conventional NATO defence, signalling a shift of burden that many
December 31 dips to 13%3%
Pentagon officials meet European delegations in Washington and announce a 2027 deadline for Europe‑led conventional NATO defence, signalling a shift of burden that many interpreted as a step toward U.S. withdrawal
Nov 17 2025
President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw the U.S. from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit from the alliance
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
Trump's explicit threat and criticism of NATO's support triggered a sharp increase in perceived withdrawal risk.
Oct 22 2025
President Donald Trump tells NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House that he is “absolutely considering withdrawing the United States from NATO” after allies refused
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Donald Trump tells NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House that he is “absolutely considering withdrawing the United States from NATO” after allies refused to join the Iran war
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's recent statements criticizing NATO allies for insufficient support in US-led actions against Iran, including plans to "probably" withdraw troops from Germany, Italy, and Spain, have heightened tensions but kept trader consensus on US NATO withdrawal before 2027 at around 11%. Statutory barriers from the 2024 NDAA Section 1250A prohibit unilateral presidential exit without a two-thirds Senate majority or congressional act, requiring 120-day notice and underscoring separation of powers. No formal denunciation process has begun amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and Middle East escalations. Upcoming NATO burden-sharing summits and potential congressional hearings on alliance commitments could sway probabilities, though historical precedents favor continuity over rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's recent statements criticizing NATO allies for insufficient support in US-led actions against Iran, including plans to "probably" withdraw troops from Germany, Italy, and Spain, have heightened tensions but kept trader consensus on US NATO withdrawal before 2027 at around 11%. Statutory barriers from the 2024 NDAA Section 1250A prohibit unilateral presidential exit without a two-thirds Senate majority or congressional act, requiring 120-day notice and underscoring separation of powers. No formal denunciation process has begun amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and Middle East escalations. Upcoming NATO burden-sharing summits and potential congressional hearings on alliance commitments could sway probabilities, though historical precedents favor continuity over rupture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 27 2026
Reuters reports NATO is considering ending its annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, signalling that the alliance is adapting rather than expecting a U.S. exit
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Reuters reports NATO is considering ending its annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, signalling that the alliance is adapting rather than expecting a U.S. exit
Apr 27 2026
Reuters article notes NATO is debating ending annual summits to avoid a tense clash with Trump, but no concrete move toward U.S.
withdrawal – Continued discussion without decisive action kept the probability stable at the low‑single‑digit level.
Apr 27 2026
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
NATO discusses ending its annual summit format to avoid a tense clash with President Trump, signalling reduced risk of a U.S. pull‑out
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining options to punish NATO allies (e.g., suspending Spain) but explicitly does not include a U.S. withdrawal
Apr 24 2026
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Reuters reports a leaked Pentagon email outlining possible punitive steps (e.g., suspending Spain) but not an actual withdrawal – The email showed the administration was considering pressure tactics rather than a formal exit, cementing the lower
Apr 24 2026
Pentagon email leaked showing officials debating the possibility of suspending Spain from NATO because of its stance on the Iran war, sparking renewed speculation about U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Pentagon email leaked showing officials debating the possibility of suspending Spain from NATO because of its stance on the Iran war, sparking renewed speculation about U.S. leverage and withdrawal
Apr 22 2026
Bipartisan legislation co‑sponsored by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now SecState) amends the 2024 NDAA, requiring a two‑thirds Senate vote before any U.S.
June 30 dips to 3%2%
denunciation of NATO can be enacted
Apr 22 2026
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S. withdrawal speculation in an interview, reaffirming U.S. commitment to the alliance, which helped reduce perceived risk
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Official NATO statements helped calm market fears, leading to a slight
Apr 22 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte meets Trump at the White House and publicly states the U.S.
December 31 dips to 11%1%
has not submitted any notice of denunciation, calming markets and nudging the
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte dismisses U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
withdrawal speculation in interview with DW News – Rutte’s reassurance that the United States remains “committed” further reduced perceived risk.
Apr 19 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte publicly dismisses any U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit fears, stating the alliance remains “strong and united”
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte calls President Trump’s accusations of a U.S.
June 30 dips to 5%2%
withdrawal “unfounded speculation” in a televised interview
Apr 18 2026
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit would be “destructive” for European security at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum – Turkey’s strong condemnation signaled that key NATO members were not expecting a U.S. pull‑out, pulling the
Apr 18 2026
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warns that a U.S.
June 30 dips to 4%1%
pull‑out would be “destructive” after Trump threatens to quit over European refusal to open the Strait of Hormuz
Apr 18 2026
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte says he “does not see” a U.S.
June 30 drops to 5%9%
exit from the alliance, downplaying Trump’s rhetoric
Apr 17 2026
President Donald Trump tells Al Jazeera he is “seriously considering” a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
withdrawal from NATO amid the Iran‑Israel conflict
Apr 17 2026
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Al Jazeera video shows President Donald Trump threatening to pull the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to back the US‑Israel war on Iran – The broadcast highlighted Trump’s renewed “leave NATO” rhetoric, prompting traders to
Apr 15 2026
Washington Times editorial argues the U.S.
June 30 rises to 7%2%
“must exit NATO” and explains that a formal notice of denunciation would be required
Apr 12 2026
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) re‑introduces HR 6508, the “NATO Act,” calling the alliance a Cold‑War relic and urging Congress to approve a formal withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) re‑introduces HR 6508, the “NATO Act,” calling the alliance a Cold‑War relic and urging Congress to approve a formal withdrawal
Apr 8 2026
Al Jazeera reports the Trump administration is “mulling NATO withdrawal” after the Iran war, quoting senior officials;
December 31 rises to 13%3%
the story reignites speculation and lifts the
Apr 8 2026
Trump administration signals it is seriously considering NATO withdrawal due to European allies' reluctance to support the Iran war, intensifying speculation but still facing significant legal and political obstacles
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Renewed rhetoric about withdrawal amid the Iran conflict caused a modest
Apr 1 2026
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
June 30 jumps to 14%9%
Trump tells Reuters he is “absolutely” considering a NATO withdrawal, promising a nation‑wide address later that day
Apr 1 2026
Trump repeats in a Reuters interview that he is “absolutely” considering pulling the U.S.
December 31 dips to 10%4%
out of NATO, citing European inaction on the Iran conflict; bipartisan lawmakers issue a rapid rebuttal, causing a sharp dip
Apr 1 2026
POLITICO and other sources report no evidence of formal plans or notifications for U.S. withdrawal from NATO, with top lawmakers affirming the U.S. will remain in the alliance and emphasizing legal hurdles
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Official reassurances and recognition of legal constraints led to a market correction downward.
Mar 15 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is mulling NATO withdrawal after the Iran war escalates, but no formal steps or notifications to Congress have been made, and bipartisan legislation requires Senate approval for withdrawal
December 31 rises to 8%3%
Speculation about withdrawal increased slightly amid ongoing tensions, despite legal and procedural barriers.
Feb 4 2026
President Trump signs an executive order withdrawing the United States from dozens of international organisations;
December 31 rises to 14%3%
media note the order could be a template for a NATO denunciation, pushing the market higher
Jan 22 2026
The Pentagon informs allies it will pull roughly 200 U.S.
December 31 dips to 11%2%
officers out of NATO structures, the first concrete personnel‑withdrawal move under the Trump administration
Jan 19 2026
Trump renews pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending at the 2025 Hague summit, calling the agreement a "big win," but continues to refuse ruling out withdrawal amid disputes such as Greenland annexation ambitions
December 31 jumps to 14%8%
Renewed pressure and ambiguous signals about withdrawal prospects caused a temporary
Dec 5 2025
Reuters reports the U.S. sets a 2027 deadline for Europe to lead NATO defense spending, with officials warning the U.S. could withdraw from some NATO planning mechanisms if progress is unsatisfactory
December 31 dips to 13%3%
This report suggested pressure tactics rather than formal withdrawal, causing a slight market pullback.
Dec 5 2025
Pentagon officials meet European delegations in Washington and announce a 2027 deadline for Europe‑led conventional NATO defence, signalling a shift of burden that many
December 31 dips to 13%3%
Pentagon officials meet European delegations in Washington and announce a 2027 deadline for Europe‑led conventional NATO defence, signalling a shift of burden that many interpreted as a step toward U.S. withdrawal
Nov 17 2025
President Donald Trump publicly threatens to withdraw the U.S. from NATO over allies' refusal to support the US-Israel war on Iran, raising market speculation about a possible US exit from the alliance
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
Trump's explicit threat and criticism of NATO's support triggered a sharp increase in perceived withdrawal risk.
Oct 22 2025
President Donald Trump tells NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House that he is “absolutely considering withdrawing the United States from NATO” after allies refused
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Donald Trump tells NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House that he is “absolutely considering withdrawing the United States from NATO” after allies refused to join the Iran war
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 11%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" ha generado $5.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 2%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $5.3 million operados en “¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 11¢ para "31 de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 11% de que "31 de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 11¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 89¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 69 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Estados Unidos se retirará de la OTAN antes de...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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