¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?
$2,554,798 Vol.
31 dic 2025
30 de junio de 2026
$381,502 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$43,197 Vol.
9%
$2,554,798 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$381,502 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$43,197 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ukraine maintains an unwavering commitment to its 1991 borders and territorial integrity, with President Zelenskyy repeatedly rejecting any recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied areas like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk amid ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war negotiations. On April 30, Zelenskyy sought details on Vladimir Putin's proposed May 9 ceasefire around Russia's Victory Day, while proposing a longer-term truce, as Russian attacks persist. Bloomberg reported April 10 that Zelenskyy's top aide saw incremental progress in U.S.-brokered talks, but Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas it holds, with no territorial concessions agreed; recent Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian oil and military assets. Stalled diplomacy and public opposition in Ukraine keep formal sovereignty recognition highly unlikely before mid-2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ukraine maintains an unwavering commitment to its 1991 borders and territorial integrity, with President Zelenskyy repeatedly rejecting any recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied areas like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk amid ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war negotiations. On April 30, Zelenskyy sought details on Vladimir Putin's proposed May 9 ceasefire around Russia's Victory Day, while proposing a longer-term truce, as Russian attacks persist. Bloomberg reported April 10 that Zelenskyy's top aide saw incremental progress in U.S.-brokered talks, but Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas it holds, with no territorial concessions agreed; recent Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian oil and military assets. Stalled diplomacy and public opposition in Ukraine keep formal sovereignty recognition highly unlikely before mid-2026 deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 30 2026
A final statement from the Ukrainian peace negotiating team announced that talks had reached a “technical stalemate” because the sovereignty‑recognition issue remained unresolved,
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A final statement from the Ukrainian peace negotiating team announced that talks had reached a “technical stalemate” because the sovereignty‑recognition issue remained unresolved, cementing the
Apr 26 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly states that any peace proposal must not include ceding Donbas or Crimea, effectively ruling out any agreement that would involve recognising
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly states that any peace proposal must not include ceding Donbas or Crimea, effectively ruling out any agreement that would involve recognising Russian sovereignty
Apr 24 2026
Russian Central Bank cuts its key interest rate for the third time in 2026 while Russia continues large‑scale energy strikes on Ukraine, reinforcing Moscow’s strategy of pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russian Central Bank cuts its key interest rate for the third time in 2026 while Russia continues large‑scale energy strikes on Ukraine, reinforcing Moscow’s strategy of pressure rather than concession
Apr 11 2026
Russia and Ukraine begin an Easter‑time prisoner‑of‑war exchange mediated by the United States and UAE, but the talks focus on humanitarian releases, not on any political
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Russia and Ukraine begin an Easter‑time prisoner‑of‑war exchange mediated by the United States and UAE, but the talks focus on humanitarian releases, not on any political settlement involving territorial recognition
Mar 24 2026
Russian President Putin, speaking at a Security Council meeting, warned that without Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑claimed territories, no peace agreement could be signed,
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
Russian President Putin, speaking at a Security Council meeting, warned that without Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑claimed territories, no peace agreement could be signed, reinforcing the market’s low odds
Mar 12 2026
Ukraine and Romania sign a strategic partnership covering defence and energy, expanding Kyiv’s security alliances and further diminishing the likelihood of a deal that would
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Ukraine and Romania sign a strategic partnership covering defence and energy, expanding Kyiv’s security alliances and further diminishing the likelihood of a deal that would require recognising Russian claims
Feb 17 2026
During Geneva talks, Ukrainian officials stated that any cease‑fire would be based on the current front line and would not involve formal recognition of Russian sovereignty,
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
During Geneva talks, Ukrainian officials stated that any cease‑fire would be based on the current front line and would not involve formal recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting another drop
Feb 2 2026
Ukraine designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization for its support to Russia, signalling Kyiv’s intent to isolate Russia rather than negotiate
December 31, 2026 plunges to 17%21%
Ukraine designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization for its support to Russia, signalling Kyiv’s intent to isolate Russia rather than negotiate sovereignty recognition
Jan 14 2026
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares a state of emergency in Ukraine’s energy sector after massive Russian strikes, underscoring Kyiv’s refusal to consider territorial
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares a state of emergency in Ukraine’s energy sector after massive Russian strikes, underscoring Kyiv’s refusal to consider territorial concessions as a bargaining chip
Jan 14 2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S.‑backed peace framework would not require Ukraine to recognize Russian annexations, reinforcing trader belief that a
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S.‑backed peace framework would not require Ukraine to recognize Russian annexations, reinforcing trader belief that a “Yes” outcome was unlikely
Dec 24 2025
Zelenskyy’s new 20‑point peace plan, presented in Kyiv, explicitly omitted any clause on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, causing the market to tumble further
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Zelenskyy’s new 20‑point peace plan, presented in Kyiv, explicitly omitted any clause on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, causing the market to tumble further
Nov 25 2025
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would not accept any peace deal lacking Ukrainian formal recognition of all annexed territories, sending the
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would not accept any peace deal lacking Ukrainian formal recognition of all annexed territories, sending the
Nov 22 2025
A leaked version of the 28‑point draft surfaced showing a “recognition of Crimea” clause;
June 30, 2026 jumps to 23%6%
traders briefly bid up the Yes
Oct 21 2025
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a revised 20‑point proposal that removed the clause demanding Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting a market sell‑off
June 30, 2026 rises to 17%4%
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a revised 20‑point proposal that removed the clause demanding Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting a market sell‑off
Oct 2 2025
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told reporters that the “victory plan” still required Ukraine to retain sovereignty over all occupied territories, ruling out any formal recognition
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%7%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told reporters that the “victory plan” still required Ukraine to retain sovereignty over all occupied territories, ruling out any formal recognition of Russian annexation
Sep 26 2025
Russia’s foreign ministry publicly rejected the 28‑point draft peace plan for omitting full recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, saying any deal must include Ukrainian
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%31%
Russia’s foreign ministry publicly rejected the 28‑point draft peace plan for omitting full recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, saying any deal must include Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ukraine maintains an unwavering commitment to its 1991 borders and territorial integrity, with President Zelenskyy repeatedly rejecting any recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied areas like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk amid ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war negotiations. On April 30, Zelenskyy sought details on Vladimir Putin's proposed May 9 ceasefire around Russia's Victory Day, while proposing a longer-term truce, as Russian attacks persist. Bloomberg reported April 10 that Zelenskyy's top aide saw incremental progress in U.S.-brokered talks, but Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas it holds, with no territorial concessions agreed; recent Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian oil and military assets. Stalled diplomacy and public opposition in Ukraine keep formal sovereignty recognition highly unlikely before mid-2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ukraine maintains an unwavering commitment to its 1991 borders and territorial integrity, with President Zelenskyy repeatedly rejecting any recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied areas like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk amid ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war negotiations. On April 30, Zelenskyy sought details on Vladimir Putin's proposed May 9 ceasefire around Russia's Victory Day, while proposing a longer-term truce, as Russian attacks persist. Bloomberg reported April 10 that Zelenskyy's top aide saw incremental progress in U.S.-brokered talks, but Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas it holds, with no territorial concessions agreed; recent Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian oil and military assets. Stalled diplomacy and public opposition in Ukraine keep formal sovereignty recognition highly unlikely before mid-2026 deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 30 2026
A final statement from the Ukrainian peace negotiating team announced that talks had reached a “technical stalemate” because the sovereignty‑recognition issue remained unresolved,
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A final statement from the Ukrainian peace negotiating team announced that talks had reached a “technical stalemate” because the sovereignty‑recognition issue remained unresolved, cementing the
Apr 26 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly states that any peace proposal must not include ceding Donbas or Crimea, effectively ruling out any agreement that would involve recognising
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly states that any peace proposal must not include ceding Donbas or Crimea, effectively ruling out any agreement that would involve recognising Russian sovereignty
Apr 24 2026
Russian Central Bank cuts its key interest rate for the third time in 2026 while Russia continues large‑scale energy strikes on Ukraine, reinforcing Moscow’s strategy of pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russian Central Bank cuts its key interest rate for the third time in 2026 while Russia continues large‑scale energy strikes on Ukraine, reinforcing Moscow’s strategy of pressure rather than concession
Apr 11 2026
Russia and Ukraine begin an Easter‑time prisoner‑of‑war exchange mediated by the United States and UAE, but the talks focus on humanitarian releases, not on any political
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Russia and Ukraine begin an Easter‑time prisoner‑of‑war exchange mediated by the United States and UAE, but the talks focus on humanitarian releases, not on any political settlement involving territorial recognition
Mar 24 2026
Russian President Putin, speaking at a Security Council meeting, warned that without Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑claimed territories, no peace agreement could be signed,
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
Russian President Putin, speaking at a Security Council meeting, warned that without Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑claimed territories, no peace agreement could be signed, reinforcing the market’s low odds
Mar 12 2026
Ukraine and Romania sign a strategic partnership covering defence and energy, expanding Kyiv’s security alliances and further diminishing the likelihood of a deal that would
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Ukraine and Romania sign a strategic partnership covering defence and energy, expanding Kyiv’s security alliances and further diminishing the likelihood of a deal that would require recognising Russian claims
Feb 17 2026
During Geneva talks, Ukrainian officials stated that any cease‑fire would be based on the current front line and would not involve formal recognition of Russian sovereignty,
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
During Geneva talks, Ukrainian officials stated that any cease‑fire would be based on the current front line and would not involve formal recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting another drop
Feb 2 2026
Ukraine designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization for its support to Russia, signalling Kyiv’s intent to isolate Russia rather than negotiate
December 31, 2026 plunges to 17%21%
Ukraine designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization for its support to Russia, signalling Kyiv’s intent to isolate Russia rather than negotiate sovereignty recognition
Jan 14 2026
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares a state of emergency in Ukraine’s energy sector after massive Russian strikes, underscoring Kyiv’s refusal to consider territorial
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares a state of emergency in Ukraine’s energy sector after massive Russian strikes, underscoring Kyiv’s refusal to consider territorial concessions as a bargaining chip
Jan 14 2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S.‑backed peace framework would not require Ukraine to recognize Russian annexations, reinforcing trader belief that a
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S.‑backed peace framework would not require Ukraine to recognize Russian annexations, reinforcing trader belief that a “Yes” outcome was unlikely
Dec 24 2025
Zelenskyy’s new 20‑point peace plan, presented in Kyiv, explicitly omitted any clause on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, causing the market to tumble further
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Zelenskyy’s new 20‑point peace plan, presented in Kyiv, explicitly omitted any clause on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, causing the market to tumble further
Nov 25 2025
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would not accept any peace deal lacking Ukrainian formal recognition of all annexed territories, sending the
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would not accept any peace deal lacking Ukrainian formal recognition of all annexed territories, sending the
Nov 22 2025
A leaked version of the 28‑point draft surfaced showing a “recognition of Crimea” clause;
June 30, 2026 jumps to 23%6%
traders briefly bid up the Yes
Oct 21 2025
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a revised 20‑point proposal that removed the clause demanding Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting a market sell‑off
June 30, 2026 rises to 17%4%
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a revised 20‑point proposal that removed the clause demanding Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, prompting a market sell‑off
Oct 2 2025
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told reporters that the “victory plan” still required Ukraine to retain sovereignty over all occupied territories, ruling out any formal recognition
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%7%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told reporters that the “victory plan” still required Ukraine to retain sovereignty over all occupied territories, ruling out any formal recognition of Russian annexation
Sep 26 2025
Russia’s foreign ministry publicly rejected the 28‑point draft peace plan for omitting full recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, saying any deal must include Ukrainian
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%31%
Russia’s foreign ministry publicly rejected the 28‑point draft peace plan for omitting full recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, saying any deal must include Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con 9%, seguido de "30 de junio de 2026" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 9¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 9% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" ha generado $2.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 6, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con solo 9%, con "30 de junio de 2026" muy cerca con 3%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $2.6 million operados en “¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 9¢ para "31 de diciembre de 2026" en el mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 9% de que "31 de diciembre de 2026" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 9¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 91¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 126 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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