Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at just 10.5% likelihood, reflecting contained tensions despite routine PLA drills and gray-zone coercion in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises on April 28 deployed missiles near Taiwan as a Chinese action group operated nearby, prompting mutual surveillance but no escalation. Beijing intensified diplomatic isolation by pressuring allies to block President Lai Ching-te's Eswatini trip on April 21, favoring non-kinetic pressure over invasion. U.S. ODNI's March assessment deems a 2027 assault unlikely, compounded by Xi Jinping's military purges disrupting PLA command for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing exercises and diplomatic maneuvers sustain deterrence without tipping toward conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,731,269 Vol.
$1,731,269 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$1,731,269 Vol.
$1,731,269 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at just 10.5% likelihood, reflecting contained tensions despite routine PLA drills and gray-zone coercion in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises on April 28 deployed missiles near Taiwan as a Chinese action group operated nearby, prompting mutual surveillance but no escalation. Beijing intensified diplomatic isolation by pressuring allies to block President Lai Ching-te's Eswatini trip on April 21, favoring non-kinetic pressure over invasion. U.S. ODNI's March assessment deems a 2027 assault unlikely, compounded by Xi Jinping's military purges disrupting PLA command for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing exercises and diplomatic maneuvers sustain deterrence without tipping toward conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volumen
$1,731,269Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at just 10.5% likelihood, reflecting contained tensions despite routine PLA drills and gray-zone coercion in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises on April 28 deployed missiles near Taiwan as a Chinese action group operated nearby, prompting mutual surveillance but no escalation. Beijing intensified diplomatic isolation by pressuring allies to block President Lai Ching-te's Eswatini trip on April 21, favoring non-kinetic pressure over invasion. U.S. ODNI's March assessment deems a 2027 assault unlikely, compounded by Xi Jinping's military purges disrupting PLA command for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing exercises and diplomatic maneuvers sustain deterrence without tipping toward conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,731,279Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at just 10.5% likelihood, reflecting contained tensions despite routine PLA drills and gray-zone coercion in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises on April 28 deployed missiles near Taiwan as a Chinese action group operated nearby, prompting mutual surveillance but no escalation. Beijing intensified diplomatic isolation by pressuring allies to block President Lai Ching-te's Eswatini trip on April 21, favoring non-kinetic pressure over invasion. U.S. ODNI's March assessment deems a 2027 assault unlikely, compounded by Xi Jinping's military purges disrupting PLA command for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing exercises and diplomatic maneuvers sustain deterrence without tipping toward conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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