Trader consensus reflects a 90% implied probability against the US seizing the Panama Canal before 2027, anchored in the waterway's continued operation under Panamanian sovereignty via the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties, fully transferred in 1999 with no reversals. Recent joint US-Panama military exercises in January-February 2026 focused on defense drills and counter-narcotrafficking rather than control shifts, while Panama's Supreme Court voided Chinese-linked port concessions at canal ends in late January, prompting US-backed regional condemnation of Beijing's retaliatory ship detentions as of April 29. The Pentagon's January National Defense Strategy prioritizes guaranteeing US access through partnerships, not takeover, underscoring diplomatic de-escalation over military action amid geopolitical tensions with China. Late-breaking escalations or treaty disputes could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$68,404 Vol.
$68,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$68,404 Vol.
$68,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects a 90% implied probability against the US seizing the Panama Canal before 2027, anchored in the waterway's continued operation under Panamanian sovereignty via the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties, fully transferred in 1999 with no reversals. Recent joint US-Panama military exercises in January-February 2026 focused on defense drills and counter-narcotrafficking rather than control shifts, while Panama's Supreme Court voided Chinese-linked port concessions at canal ends in late January, prompting US-backed regional condemnation of Beijing's retaliatory ship detentions as of April 29. The Pentagon's January National Defense Strategy prioritizes guaranteeing US access through partnerships, not takeover, underscoring diplomatic de-escalation over military action amid geopolitical tensions with China. Late-breaking escalations or treaty disputes could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
Volumen
$68,404Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects a 90% implied probability against the US seizing the Panama Canal before 2027, anchored in the waterway's continued operation under Panamanian sovereignty via the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties, fully transferred in 1999 with no reversals. Recent joint US-Panama military exercises in January-February 2026 focused on defense drills and counter-narcotrafficking rather than control shifts, while Panama's Supreme Court voided Chinese-linked port concessions at canal ends in late January, prompting US-backed regional condemnation of Beijing's retaliatory ship detentions as of April 29. The Pentagon's January National Defense Strategy prioritizes guaranteeing US access through partnerships, not takeover, underscoring diplomatic de-escalation over military action amid geopolitical tensions with China. Late-breaking escalations or treaty disputes could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Volumen
$68,404Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 90% implied probability against the US seizing the Panama Canal before 2027, anchored in the waterway's continued operation under Panamanian sovereignty via the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties, fully transferred in 1999 with no reversals. Recent joint US-Panama military exercises in January-February 2026 focused on defense drills and counter-narcotrafficking rather than control shifts, while Panama's Supreme Court voided Chinese-linked port concessions at canal ends in late January, prompting US-backed regional condemnation of Beijing's retaliatory ship detentions as of April 29. The Pentagon's January National Defense Strategy prioritizes guaranteeing US access through partnerships, not takeover, underscoring diplomatic de-escalation over military action amid geopolitical tensions with China. Late-breaking escalations or treaty disputes could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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