| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but

June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%

| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but stabilising them ||

Reuters‑cited analysis (via Al Jazeera) states that even if preparations began, the earliest feasible Ukrainian election would be March 2026, still after the market’s June 30 2026

June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Reuters‑cited analysis (via Al Jazeera) states that even if preparations began, the earliest feasible Ukrainian election would be March 2026, still after the market’s June 30 2026 deadline, further dampening expectations

Al Jazeera analysis argues the earliest realistic election could be March 2026, but legislative hurdles remain, pushing

December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%

Al Jazeera analysis argues the earliest realistic election could be March 2026, but legislative hurdles remain, pushing

| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market

June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%

| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market optimism ||

Ukraine’s Freedom House 2026 report confirms martial law has been extended for the 18th time, now running until 4 May 2026, legally blocking any national election before that date

June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%

Ukraine’s Freedom House 2026 report confirms martial law has been extended for the 18th time, now running until 4 May 2026, legally blocking any national election before that date

Euromaidan Press poll shows only 10 % of Ukrainians support elections before a cease‑fire, reinforcing belief that a 2025‑2026 vote is unlikely

December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%18%

Euromaidan Press poll shows only 10 % of Ukrainians support elections before a cease‑fire, reinforcing belief that a 2025‑2026 vote is unlikely

Zelenskyy tells ZDF he would run if an election were held during the war, reiterating his earlier ambivalence and reinforcing doubts about a June 2026 poll

June 30, 2026 dips to 7%4%

Zelenskyy tells ZDF he would run if an election were held during the war, reiterating his earlier ambivalence and reinforcing doubts about a June 2026 poll

| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting

June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%

| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting “Yes” odds ||

Carnegie Endowment reports parliamentary working group expected to present draft election legislation by end of February, but no timeline set, causing a modest

December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%

Carnegie Endowment reports parliamentary working group expected to present draft election legislation by end of February, but no timeline set, causing a modest

Carnegie Endowment notes that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, raising hopes for a post‑martial‑law vote but

June 30, 2026 drops to 11%10%

Carnegie Endowment notes that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, raising hopes for a post‑martial‑law vote but also indicating no concrete date yet

Reuters notes Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for elections only after a cease‑fire, dampening market hopes for a 2025‑2026 election

December 31, 2026 drops to 38%9%

Reuters notes Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for elections only after a cease‑fire, dampening market hopes for a 2025‑2026 election

| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|

June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%

| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|

| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower

June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%

| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower ||

NPR reports that the U.S.–Ukraine draft peace proposal explicitly requires Ukraine to hold elections after the agreement is signed, signalling that elections are still contingent

June 30, 2026 dips to 28%2%

NPR reports that the U.S.–Ukraine draft peace proposal explicitly requires Ukraine to hold elections after the agreement is signed, signalling that elections are still contingent on a post‑war settlement

Kyivpost reports parliament creates a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime‑election law, signalling concrete steps toward a possible vote

December 31, 2026 rises to 47%1%

Kyivpost reports parliament creates a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime‑election law, signalling concrete steps toward a possible vote

In a ZDF interview Zelenskyy says he would run if an election were held during the war but remains unsure about a peacetime poll, underscoring the uncertainty around any 2026

June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%

In a ZDF interview Zelenskyy says he would run if an election were held during the war but remains unsure about a peacetime poll, underscoring the uncertainty around any 2026 election

CNN explainer reports Zelenskyy saying Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days only if security guarantees were provided, highlighting the difficulty of an early 2026 vote

June 30, 2026 jumps to 34%11%

CNN explainer reports Zelenskyy saying Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days only if security guarantees were provided, highlighting the difficulty of an early 2026 vote

CNN explainer notes Zelenskyy’s claim that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, fueling optimism that a 2025‑2026 vote might happen

December 31, 2026 rises to 46%4%

CNN explainer notes Zelenskyy’s claim that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, fueling optimism that a 2025‑2026 vote might happen

| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|

June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%

| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|

President Zelenskyy says he will ask parliament to draft legislation allowing elections during martial law, after U.S.

December 31, 2026 drops to 42%11%

pressure for a “security‑guaranteed” vote

| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes”

June 30, 2026 surges to 38%16%

| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds ||

| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||

June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%

| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||

| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||

June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%

| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||

| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||

June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%

| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||

Ukrainian parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law, pledging to schedule a presidential vote only after the war ends

June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%

Ukrainian parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law, pledging to schedule a presidential vote only after the war ends

Verkhovna Rada passes resolution reaffirming that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges a post‑war presidential vote

December 31, 2026 rises to 52%1%

Verkhovna Rada passes resolution reaffirming that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges a post‑war presidential vote

Ukrainian parliament extends martial law for the 18th time, now running until 4 May 2026, keeping constitutional bar on elections in place

December 31, 2026 drops to 47%5%

Ukrainian parliament extends martial law for the 18th time, now running until 4 May 2026, keeping constitutional bar on elections in place