Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched maximalist positions and persistent military pressure, with Russian advances continuing despite diplomatic overtures. The April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce, limited to 32 hours, saw mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, underscoring enforcement challenges. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged US-brokered talks progressing but noted unresolved territorial disputes and Russia's ample reserves. Recent Trump-Putin discussions on a fighting pause drew shrugs from Kyiv, while Moscow's May 9 Victory Day truce proposal awaits Ukrainian review via Washington. Absent major concessions, traders see slim odds of de-escalation within eight months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
Sí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched maximalist positions and persistent military pressure, with Russian advances continuing despite diplomatic overtures. The April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce, limited to 32 hours, saw mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, underscoring enforcement challenges. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged US-brokered talks progressing but noted unresolved territorial disputes and Russia's ample reserves. Recent Trump-Putin discussions on a fighting pause drew shrugs from Kyiv, while Moscow's May 9 Victory Day truce proposal awaits Ukrainian review via Washington. Absent major concessions, traders see slim odds of de-escalation within eight months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched maximalist positions and persistent military pressure, with Russian advances continuing despite diplomatic overtures. The April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce, limited to 32 hours, saw mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, underscoring enforcement challenges. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged US-brokered talks progressing but noted unresolved territorial disputes and Russia's ample reserves. Recent Trump-Putin discussions on a fighting pause drew shrugs from Kyiv, while Moscow's May 9 Victory Day truce proposal awaits Ukrainian review via Washington. Absent major concessions, traders see slim odds of de-escalation within eight months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched maximalist positions and persistent military pressure, with Russian advances continuing despite diplomatic overtures. The April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce, limited to 32 hours, saw mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, underscoring enforcement challenges. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged US-brokered talks progressing but noted unresolved territorial disputes and Russia's ample reserves. Recent Trump-Putin discussions on a fighting pause drew shrugs from Kyiv, while Moscow's May 9 Victory Day truce proposal awaits Ukrainian review via Washington. Absent major concessions, traders see slim odds of de-escalation within eight months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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