**NATO has invoked Article 5 only once in its history, after the 9/11 attacks, and recent developments continue to support trader expectations that no invocation will occur before 2027.** Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has produced repeated hybrid and airspace provocations—such as 2025 drone incursions into Polish territory and fighter-jet activity near Baltic states—that triggered Article 4 consultations but stopped short of any armed attack on a member’s sovereign territory. NATO has responded with enhanced forward deployments along the eastern flank, increased high-readiness forces, and reaffirmed deterrence commitments, while U.S. policy shifts and burden-sharing debates have not altered the core assessment that Moscow currently lacks both the intent and capacity for a direct conventional strike on the Alliance. Diplomatic and military signaling from both sides emphasizes de-escalation and avoidance of miscalculation, with no scheduled events or confirmed escalatory moves inside the narrow window through the end of 2026 that would plausibly meet the threshold for collective defense. The 91.5% implied probability on “No” therefore reflects the current consensus that structural deterrence, Russia’s focus on Ukraine, and the high bar for Article 5 activation will keep the clause dormant in the near term.