Trump's second-term pattern of frequent personal attacks on Truth Social and in public remarks, including recent insults directed at journalists such as Kristen Welker and Kaitlan Collins as well as Pope Leo XIV over Iran policy, drives high trader consensus on daily "yes" outcomes for public insults. These episodes, often triggered by interviews, legislative disputes, or foreign policy debates, align with a documented increase in volume of such posts compared to his first term. Markets reflect this consistency, with traders monitoring his social media activity and scheduled media appearances for resolution triggers. Structural factors like ongoing partisan tensions and media scrutiny sustain the probability of continued insults, while any shift in posting habits or external constraints could alter near-term odds.