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Política·Cultura

¿Bailará Trump en...?

icon for ¿Bailará Trump en...?
Política·Cultura

¿Bailará Trump en...?

jul 1

jul 1

$10,577 Vol.

1 jul 2026
Polymarket

$10,577 Vol.

Polymarket

27 de junio

$100 Vol.

41%

16 de junio

$118 Vol.

33%

17 de junio

$50 Vol.

14%

29 de junio

$0 Vol.

24%

14 de junio

$1,312 Vol.

55%

15 de junio

$56 Vol.

13%

18 de junio

$50 Vol.

19%

22 de junio

$0 Vol.

26%

20 de junio

$50 Vol.

20%

24 de junio

$0 Vol.

31%

28 de junio

$0 Vol.

25%

19 de junio

$69 Vol.

19%

25 de junio

$0 Vol.

25%

30 de junio

$0 Vol.

27%

21 de junio

$50 Vol.

35%

26 de junio

$0 Vol.

23%

23 de junio

$0 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.Trump’s signature rhythmic routines, including the YMCA dance at rallies and events, have made daily “will he dance” markets a fixture on Polymarket, with traders tracking his public schedule for high-energy appearances. On June 14, 2026—his 80th birthday—the White House South Lawn hosts UFC Freedom 250 as part of America 250 celebrations, featuring fights, music, and large crowds that align with past occasions where he has danced. Recent May 2026 performances at South Lawn fitness events and campaign stops reinforce the pattern, while the festive, rhythmic atmosphere of UFC programming raises implied probabilities for a “yes” outcome. Resolution hinges on verified footage or official confirmation of deliberate movement synced to music or beats during the event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.

AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered.

Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on video footage.
Volumen
$10,577
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.Trump’s signature rhythmic routines, including the YMCA dance at rallies and events, have made daily “will he dance” markets a fixture on Polymarket, with traders tracking his public schedule for high-energy appearances. On June 14, 2026—his 80th birthday—the White House South Lawn hosts UFC Freedom 250 as part of America 250 celebrations, featuring fights, music, and large crowds that align with past occasions where he has danced. Recent May 2026 performances at South Lawn fitness events and campaign stops reinforce the pattern, while the festive, rhythmic atmosphere of UFC programming raises implied probabilities for a “yes” outcome. Resolution hinges on verified footage or official confirmation of deliberate movement synced to music or beats during the event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.

AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered.

Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on video footage.
Volumen
$10,577
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Bailará Trump en...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 28 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "5 de junio" con 100%, seguido de "14 de junio" con 55%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Bailará Trump en...?" ha generado $10.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jun 2, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Bailará Trump en...?", explora los 28 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Bailará Trump en...?" es "5 de junio" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "14 de junio" con 55%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Bailará Trump en...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.