Trader consensus reflects a low 2% implied probability for the US officially declaring war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026, driven by rapid de-escalation after the January 3 US military strikes captured Nicolás Maduro without Congressional authorization. Key developments include March's State Department announcement reestablishing diplomatic and consular ties with interim President Delcy Rodríguez's government, subsequent sanctions relief, and this week's resumption of direct commercial flights from Miami to Caracas after a seven-year hiatus, prioritizing economic cooperation on oil and minerals. January Senate votes advanced war powers resolutions to curb further executive military action rather than endorse war, highlighting constitutional barriers—formal declarations require Congressional passage, unused since World War II. No escalatory signals in the past 30 days; transitional elections could further stabilize relations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,240,811 Vol.
31 dic 2025
30 de junio de 2026
2%
$1,240,811 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$475,386 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a low 2% implied probability for the US officially declaring war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026, driven by rapid de-escalation after the January 3 US military strikes captured Nicolás Maduro without Congressional authorization. Key developments include March's State Department announcement reestablishing diplomatic and consular ties with interim President Delcy Rodríguez's government, subsequent sanctions relief, and this week's resumption of direct commercial flights from Miami to Caracas after a seven-year hiatus, prioritizing economic cooperation on oil and minerals. January Senate votes advanced war powers resolutions to curb further executive military action rather than endorse war, highlighting constitutional barriers—formal declarations require Congressional passage, unused since World War II. No escalatory signals in the past 30 days; transitional elections could further stabilize relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,240,811Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a low 2% implied probability for the US officially declaring war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026, driven by rapid de-escalation after the January 3 US military strikes captured Nicolás Maduro without Congressional authorization. Key developments include March's State Department announcement reestablishing diplomatic and consular ties with interim President Delcy Rodríguez's government, subsequent sanctions relief, and this week's resumption of direct commercial flights from Miami to Caracas after a seven-year hiatus, prioritizing economic cooperation on oil and minerals. January Senate votes advanced war powers resolutions to curb further executive military action rather than endorse war, highlighting constitutional barriers—formal declarations require Congressional passage, unused since World War II. No escalatory signals in the past 30 days; transitional elections could further stabilize relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,240,811Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a low 2% implied probability for the US officially declaring war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026, driven by rapid de-escalation after the January 3 US military strikes captured Nicolás Maduro without Congressional authorization. Key developments include March's State Department announcement reestablishing diplomatic and consular ties with interim President Delcy Rodríguez's government, subsequent sanctions relief, and this week's resumption of direct commercial flights from Miami to Caracas after a seven-year hiatus, prioritizing economic cooperation on oil and minerals. January Senate votes advanced war powers resolutions to curb further executive military action rather than endorse war, highlighting constitutional barriers—formal declarations require Congressional passage, unused since World War II. No escalatory signals in the past 30 days; transitional elections could further stabilize relations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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