Recent diplomatic momentum and the absence of ground operations strongly support trader expectations that the U.S. will not invade Iran before 2027. Since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel airstrikes and naval actions under Operation Epic Fury, which targeted nuclear sites, missiles, and naval assets without establishing territorial control, engagement has shifted to extended ceasefires, Pakistan-brokered talks, and proposals for uranium dilution, Strait of Hormuz access, and sanctions adjustments. As of mid-June 2026, President Trump and Iranian officials signal proximity to an initial deal addressing nuclear constraints, with no Pentagon commitment to occupation forces despite regional deployments. Analysts cite high logistical, escalation, and domestic political costs of any ground campaign as reinforcing the current consensus reflected in the 84.5% implied probability for "No."