Amid heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions under the Trump administration, trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion in 2026, driven by recent diplomatic engagement over military escalation. Last week, senior U.S. officials visited Havana to propose a deal addressing Cuba's humanitarian crisis in exchange for political reforms and an end to repression, with Cuban counterparts describing talks as respectful while demanding relief from the U.S. energy blockade imposed since February. Earlier April reports of Pentagon contingency planning and Trump's threats on the Bay of Pigs anniversary fueled brief speculation, but senior U.S. generals denied active invasion preparations. Ongoing sanctions target Cuba's ties to Russia and China, yet open diplomacy, congressional war powers hurdles, and focus on Iran underscore low invasion likelihood barring major provocation.