The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba relies primarily on economic tools—an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, tariffs, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro—rather than committing forces to invasion. Public statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have raised the prospect of intervention following the Venezuela operation, while naval assets including the USS Nimitz have been positioned in the Caribbean to create leverage and response options. Officials have repeatedly stressed that no invasion is planned or imminent, preferring a peaceful transition or regime concessions amid Cuba's energy and economic strains. These factors, combined with the high logistical, political, and insurgency risks of any ground operation, underpin the market's 78.5% probability on "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,789,252 Vol.
$2,789,252 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$2,789,252 Vol.
$2,789,252 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba relies primarily on economic tools—an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, tariffs, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro—rather than committing forces to invasion. Public statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have raised the prospect of intervention following the Venezuela operation, while naval assets including the USS Nimitz have been positioned in the Caribbean to create leverage and response options. Officials have repeatedly stressed that no invasion is planned or imminent, preferring a peaceful transition or regime concessions amid Cuba's energy and economic strains. These factors, combined with the high logistical, political, and insurgency risks of any ground operation, underpin the market's 78.5% probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$2,789,252Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba relies primarily on economic tools—an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, tariffs, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro—rather than committing forces to invasion. Public statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have raised the prospect of intervention following the Venezuela operation, while naval assets including the USS Nimitz have been positioned in the Caribbean to create leverage and response options. Officials have repeatedly stressed that no invasion is planned or imminent, preferring a peaceful transition or regime concessions amid Cuba's energy and economic strains. These factors, combined with the high logistical, political, and insurgency risks of any ground operation, underpin the market's 78.5% probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$2,789,252Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba relies primarily on economic tools—an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, tariffs, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro—rather than committing forces to invasion. Public statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have raised the prospect of intervention following the Venezuela operation, while naval assets including the USS Nimitz have been positioned in the Caribbean to create leverage and response options. Officials have repeatedly stressed that no invasion is planned or imminent, preferring a peaceful transition or regime concessions amid Cuba's energy and economic strains. These factors, combined with the high logistical, political, and insurgency risks of any ground operation, underpin the market's 78.5% probability on "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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