Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country at just 22% for 2026, driven by the Trump administration's emphasis on limited counter-narcotics raids—like the January Venezuela operation capturing Maduro via airstrikes without establishing territorial control—and subsequent partner-led efforts. In the past 30 days, the Pentagon launched an autonomous warfare command deploying unmanned systems across the region, while March's Shield of Americas summit urged Ecuador, Colombia, and others to spearhead anti-cartel military actions with U.S. air and naval support only. Official denials of Cuba ground invasion plans amid improving bilateral talks, combined with U.S. focus on Iran and historical aversion to occupations since Panama 1989, solidify the low-risk assessment for full-scale land control offensives before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$213,414 Vol.
$213,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$213,414 Vol.
$213,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country at just 22% for 2026, driven by the Trump administration's emphasis on limited counter-narcotics raids—like the January Venezuela operation capturing Maduro via airstrikes without establishing territorial control—and subsequent partner-led efforts. In the past 30 days, the Pentagon launched an autonomous warfare command deploying unmanned systems across the region, while March's Shield of Americas summit urged Ecuador, Colombia, and others to spearhead anti-cartel military actions with U.S. air and naval support only. Official denials of Cuba ground invasion plans amid improving bilateral talks, combined with U.S. focus on Iran and historical aversion to occupations since Panama 1989, solidify the low-risk assessment for full-scale land control offensives before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$213,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country at just 22% for 2026, driven by the Trump administration's emphasis on limited counter-narcotics raids—like the January Venezuela operation capturing Maduro via airstrikes without establishing territorial control—and subsequent partner-led efforts. In the past 30 days, the Pentagon launched an autonomous warfare command deploying unmanned systems across the region, while March's Shield of Americas summit urged Ecuador, Colombia, and others to spearhead anti-cartel military actions with U.S. air and naval support only. Official denials of Cuba ground invasion plans amid improving bilateral talks, combined with U.S. focus on Iran and historical aversion to occupations since Panama 1989, solidify the low-risk assessment for full-scale land control offensives before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$213,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country at just 22% for 2026, driven by the Trump administration's emphasis on limited counter-narcotics raids—like the January Venezuela operation capturing Maduro via airstrikes without establishing territorial control—and subsequent partner-led efforts. In the past 30 days, the Pentagon launched an autonomous warfare command deploying unmanned systems across the region, while March's Shield of Americas summit urged Ecuador, Colombia, and others to spearhead anti-cartel military actions with U.S. air and naval support only. Official denials of Cuba ground invasion plans amid improving bilateral talks, combined with U.S. focus on Iran and historical aversion to occupations since Panama 1989, solidify the low-risk assessment for full-scale land control offensives before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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