The U.S. special operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, involved targeted strikes and a brief apprehension force rather than sustained occupation or broader military campaign, aligning with historical precedents like the 1989 Panama action. Through mid-June, the Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, vessel interdictions, tariffs, and legal measures such as indictments against Cuban figures, alongside National Security Strategy language reasserting hemispheric priorities without committing ground forces elsewhere. Ongoing diplomatic and economic pressure on countries including Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia, combined with the absence of escalation triggers or large-scale deployments, supports trader consensus that full invasion remains unlikely for the remainder of the year absent major unforeseen developments.