The January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, which involved targeted strikes and the capture of Nicolás Maduro under drug-trafficking charges, has shaped trader views on the low odds of a broader invasion elsewhere in the region this year. That limited action, framed by the administration as a law-enforcement operation rather than territorial occupation, aligned with ongoing counternarcotics efforts such as Caribbean naval deployments and strikes on suspected smuggling vessels. As of mid-2026, U.S. policy continues to emphasize sanctions, tariffs, asset seizures, and diplomatic pressure on countries including Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico, alongside military signaling like carrier movements, without evidence of plans for sustained ground campaigns. These patterns, combined with the absence of new escalations since the Venezuela episode, underpin the market's 78.5% probability on "No."