Trader consensus prices a 78% chance against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on targeted counter-narcotics operations rather than full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments, including March conferences where officials pledged military force against cartels—treated as terrorist organizations—and strikes on drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, have built coalitions with 17 regional partners but stopped short of sovereign territory incursions. Heightened rhetoric around Venezuela, with naval deployments and asset seizures since August 2025, has not escalated to troop commitments amid Mexico's rejection of U.S. boots on its soil and historical aversion to costly occupations post-Iraq. No scheduled summits or votes signal further escalation through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$213,414 Vol.
$213,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$213,414 Vol.
$213,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 78% chance against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on targeted counter-narcotics operations rather than full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments, including March conferences where officials pledged military force against cartels—treated as terrorist organizations—and strikes on drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, have built coalitions with 17 regional partners but stopped short of sovereign territory incursions. Heightened rhetoric around Venezuela, with naval deployments and asset seizures since August 2025, has not escalated to troop commitments amid Mexico's rejection of U.S. boots on its soil and historical aversion to costly occupations post-Iraq. No scheduled summits or votes signal further escalation through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$213,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 78% chance against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on targeted counter-narcotics operations rather than full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments, including March conferences where officials pledged military force against cartels—treated as terrorist organizations—and strikes on drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, have built coalitions with 17 regional partners but stopped short of sovereign territory incursions. Heightened rhetoric around Venezuela, with naval deployments and asset seizures since August 2025, has not escalated to troop commitments amid Mexico's rejection of U.S. boots on its soil and historical aversion to costly occupations post-Iraq. No scheduled summits or votes signal further escalation through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$213,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 78% chance against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on targeted counter-narcotics operations rather than full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments, including March conferences where officials pledged military force against cartels—treated as terrorist organizations—and strikes on drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, have built coalitions with 17 regional partners but stopped short of sovereign territory incursions. Heightened rhetoric around Venezuela, with naval deployments and asset seizures since August 2025, has not escalated to troop commitments amid Mexico's rejection of U.S. boots on its soil and historical aversion to costly occupations post-Iraq. No scheduled summits or votes signal further escalation through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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