Russian forces have made marginal gains in forests and outskirts around Riasne in Sumy Oblast, capturing nearby settlements like Riznykivka and Taratutyne in late April, but ISW assessments through April 29 confirm no verified advances into the village itself, with Ukrainian counterattacks repelling assaults amid ongoing shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions. Milbloggers claim incremental progress east and south of Riasne, yet the specific intersection defining market resolution remains outside assessed Russian control on ISW maps. Trader consensus reflects the attritional pace of northern border operations—small daily gains at high cost—leaving scant time before May 31 for full capture, despite a reported new offensive push.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWill Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made marginal gains in forests and outskirts around Riasne in Sumy Oblast, capturing nearby settlements like Riznykivka and Taratutyne in late April, but ISW assessments through April 29 confirm no verified advances into the village itself, with Ukrainian counterattacks repelling assaults amid ongoing shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions. Milbloggers claim incremental progress east and south of Riasne, yet the specific intersection defining market resolution remains outside assessed Russian control on ISW maps. Trader consensus reflects the attritional pace of northern border operations—small daily gains at high cost—leaving scant time before May 31 for full capture, despite a reported new offensive push.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$737Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made marginal gains in forests and outskirts around Riasne in Sumy Oblast, capturing nearby settlements like Riznykivka and Taratutyne in late April, but ISW assessments through April 29 confirm no verified advances into the village itself, with Ukrainian counterattacks repelling assaults amid ongoing shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions. Milbloggers claim incremental progress east and south of Riasne, yet the specific intersection defining market resolution remains outside assessed Russian control on ISW maps. Trader consensus reflects the attritional pace of northern border operations—small daily gains at high cost—leaving scant time before May 31 for full capture, despite a reported new offensive push.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$737Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have made marginal gains in forests and outskirts around Riasne in Sumy Oblast, capturing nearby settlements like Riznykivka and Taratutyne in late April, but ISW assessments through April 29 confirm no verified advances into the village itself, with Ukrainian counterattacks repelling assaults amid ongoing shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions. Milbloggers claim incremental progress east and south of Riasne, yet the specific intersection defining market resolution remains outside assessed Russian control on ISW maps. Trader consensus reflects the attritional pace of northern border operations—small daily gains at high cost—leaving scant time before May 31 for full capture, despite a reported new offensive push.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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