North Korea’s explicit rejection of inter-Korean dialogue under its “two hostile states” doctrine, formalized at the 2026 Workers’ Party Congress, drives the near-certain trader consensus against direct talks by June 30. Pyongyang has severed official channels with Seoul, prioritized border fortifications, and pursued nuclear and conventional military expansion while deepening ties with China and Russia instead. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s “peaceful coexistence” overtures and multilateral proposals, including Tumen River initiatives, have received no positive response. With only weeks remaining and no scheduled meetings or confidence-building steps evident, traders view the short timeline and entrenched positions as decisive barriers. A last-minute backchannel breakthrough or external diplomatic intervention could still shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current reporting.