Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27), Nexus (April 24-26), and Quaest (April 9-13) show President Lula leading first-round scenarios with 37-47% support, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 32-40%, and remaining candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema below 7%, alongside 8-21% undecided or blank votes—well short of the absolute majority required for an outright win on October 4. This fragmented field, with no frontrunner consolidating beyond historical precedents for first-round victories, drives the 90.5% implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus on persistent polarization. Late shifts could arise from candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or scandals, though current trends point to a runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$61,907 Vol.
$61,907 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Sí
$61,907 Vol.
$61,907 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27), Nexus (April 24-26), and Quaest (April 9-13) show President Lula leading first-round scenarios with 37-47% support, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 32-40%, and remaining candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema below 7%, alongside 8-21% undecided or blank votes—well short of the absolute majority required for an outright win on October 4. This fragmented field, with no frontrunner consolidating beyond historical precedents for first-round victories, drives the 90.5% implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus on persistent polarization. Late shifts could arise from candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or scandals, though current trends point to a runoff.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$61,907Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27), Nexus (April 24-26), and Quaest (April 9-13) show President Lula leading first-round scenarios with 37-47% support, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 32-40%, and remaining candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema below 7%, alongside 8-21% undecided or blank votes—well short of the absolute majority required for an outright win on October 4. This fragmented field, with no frontrunner consolidating beyond historical precedents for first-round victories, drives the 90.5% implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus on persistent polarization. Late shifts could arise from candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or scandals, though current trends point to a runoff.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$61,907Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27), Nexus (April 24-26), and Quaest (April 9-13) show President Lula leading first-round scenarios with 37-47% support, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 32-40%, and remaining candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema below 7%, alongside 8-21% undecided or blank votes—well short of the absolute majority required for an outright win on October 4. This fragmented field, with no frontrunner consolidating beyond historical precedents for first-round victories, drives the 90.5% implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus on persistent polarization. Late shifts could arise from candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or scandals, though current trends point to a runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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