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Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?

jun 30

dic 31

jun 30

dic 31

Sí

49% probabilidad
Polymarket

$111,464 Vol.

Sí

49% probabilidad
Polymarket

$111,464 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 51% for a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel by December 31, 2026, reflecting skepticism that Kazakhstan's November 2025 accession qualifies under market rules due to the absence of a bilateral signing explicitly tied to the framework. Ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts under President Trump, including March 2026 urgings for Saudi Arabia to join amid Iran's weakened position and expanded defense cooperation among existing signatories, maintain competitive balance despite stalled Gaza ceasefire talks and Riyadh's insistence on Palestinian statehood progress. Tipping toward "Yes" could come from Saudi or Syrian breakthroughs post-Assad, or Somaliland formalization; toward "No" from persistent regional conflicts or ratification hurdles in the remaining 20 months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$111,464
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 51% for a new country formally signing an Abraham Accords normalization agreement with Israel by December 31, 2026, reflecting skepticism that Kazakhstan's November 2025 accession qualifies under market rules due to the absence of a bilateral signing explicitly tied to the framework. Ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts under President Trump, including March 2026 urgings for Saudi Arabia to join amid Iran's weakened position and expanded defense cooperation among existing signatories, maintain competitive balance despite stalled Gaza ceasefire talks and Riyadh's insistence on Palestinian statehood progress. Tipping toward "Yes" could come from Saudi or Syrian breakthroughs post-Assad, or Somaliland formalization; toward "No" from persistent regional conflicts or ratification hurdles in the remaining 20 months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$111,464
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" con 48%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 48¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 48% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" ha generado $111.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" es "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" con 48%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 48% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Se unirá un nuevo país a los Acuerdos de Abraham antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.