Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 47.5% implied probability, driven by early April reports that President Trump polled advisers on replacing her as Director of National Intelligence amid frustrations over intelligence handling, with sources claiming the White House urged her resignation before 2026 midterms. This speculation intensified following recent high-profile exits—Attorney General Pam Bondi fired, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem departed—signaling ongoing cabinet turnover. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ranks second at 19.6% due to Trump's reported disappointment and his recent congressional clashes over trade deals and budgets. "None before 2027" at 22% reflects expectations of further shakeups ahead of midterm elections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTulsi Gabbard 44%
None before 2027 23%
Howard Lutnick 18.4%
Chris Wright 16.5%
$10,144 Vol.
$10,144 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
48%
None before 2027
23%
Howard Lutnick
18%
Chris Wright
17%
Susie Wiles
13%
Kelly Loeffler
11%
Scott Bessent
10%
J.D. Vance
8%
Pete Hegseth
7%
Scott Turner
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Sean Duffy
4%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Brooke Rollins
3%
Mike Waltz
3%
Russell T. Vought
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Doug Burgum
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 44%
None before 2027 23%
Howard Lutnick 18.4%
Chris Wright 16.5%
$10,144 Vol.
$10,144 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,180 Vol.
48%
None before 2027
$220 Vol.
23%
Howard Lutnick
$1,211 Vol.
18%
Chris Wright
$290 Vol.
17%
Susie Wiles
$263 Vol.
13%
Kelly Loeffler
$284 Vol.
11%
Scott Bessent
$233 Vol.
10%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
8%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
7%
Scott Turner
$332 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
5%
Sean Duffy
$219 Vol.
4%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
3%
Russell T. Vought
$238 Vol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$257 Vol.
3%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$239 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$271 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$276 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$207 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 47.5% implied probability, driven by early April reports that President Trump polled advisers on replacing her as Director of National Intelligence amid frustrations over intelligence handling, with sources claiming the White House urged her resignation before 2026 midterms. This speculation intensified following recent high-profile exits—Attorney General Pam Bondi fired, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem departed—signaling ongoing cabinet turnover. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ranks second at 19.6% due to Trump's reported disappointment and his recent congressional clashes over trade deals and budgets. "None before 2027" at 22% reflects expectations of further shakeups ahead of midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volumen
$10,144Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 47.5% implied probability, driven by early April reports that President Trump polled advisers on replacing her as Director of National Intelligence amid frustrations over intelligence handling, with sources claiming the White House urged her resignation before 2026 midterms. This speculation intensified following recent high-profile exits—Attorney General Pam Bondi fired, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem departed—signaling ongoing cabinet turnover. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ranks second at 19.6% due to Trump's reported disappointment and his recent congressional clashes over trade deals and budgets. "None before 2027" at 22% reflects expectations of further shakeups ahead of midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$10,144Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 47.5% implied probability, driven by early April reports that President Trump polled advisers on replacing her as Director of National Intelligence amid frustrations over intelligence handling, with sources claiming the White House urged her resignation before 2026 midterms. This speculation intensified following recent high-profile exits—Attorney General Pam Bondi fired, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem departed—signaling ongoing cabinet turnover. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ranks second at 19.6% due to Trump's reported disappointment and his recent congressional clashes over trade deals and budgets. "None before 2027" at 22% reflects expectations of further shakeups ahead of midterm elections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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