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Geopolítica·Trump

¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Trump

¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

$337,796 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$337,796 Vol.

Polymarket

México

$2,472 Vol.

29%

Reino Unido

$419 Vol.

25%

India

$51,693 Vol.

23%

Corea del Sur

$56,310 Vol.

24%

Australia

$6,099 Vol.

17%

Canadá

$2,741 Vol.

17%

Vietnam

$5,361 Vol.

17%

Indonesia

$19,016 Vol.

15%

Sudáfrica

$386 Vol.

15%

Israel

$366 Vol.

15%

Japón

$16,772 Vol.

12%

Taiwán

$32,117 Vol.

17%

Brasil

$4,148 Vol.

10%

Pakistán

$103,769 Vol.

10%

Rusia

$2,043 Vol.

8%

Argentina

$21,474 Vol.

8%

Unión Europea

$12,612 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's tariff policies, including broad reciprocal measures and Section 232 actions on steel and aluminum, have driven bilateral negotiations by offering tariff relief in exchange for market access commitments, investment pledges, and supply chain adjustments. Multiple frameworks or deals were concluded in 2025–early 2026, including with the UK (Economic Prosperity Deal implemented June 2025), Japan (September 2025), the EU (framework August 2025), Indonesia (finalized February 2026), and India (interim agreement February 2026), alongside arrangements with several Southeast Asian nations and Argentina. The USMCA review process, with formal negotiations underway and additional rounds scheduled for June–July 2026, centers on potential modifications or extensions with Canada and Mexico amid recent statements questioning full renewal. These dynamics, combined with the ongoing reciprocal trade agenda and scheduled diplomatic engagements through 2026, shape trader assessments of which additional countries may reach new agreements before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$337,796
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's tariff policies, including broad reciprocal measures and Section 232 actions on steel and aluminum, have driven bilateral negotiations by offering tariff relief in exchange for market access commitments, investment pledges, and supply chain adjustments. Multiple frameworks or deals were concluded in 2025–early 2026, including with the UK (Economic Prosperity Deal implemented June 2025), Japan (September 2025), the EU (framework August 2025), Indonesia (finalized February 2026), and India (interim agreement February 2026), alongside arrangements with several Southeast Asian nations and Argentina. The USMCA review process, with formal negotiations underway and additional rounds scheduled for June–July 2026, centers on potential modifications or extensions with Canada and Mexico amid recent statements questioning full renewal. These dynamics, combined with the ongoing reciprocal trade agenda and scheduled diplomatic engagements through 2026, shape trader assessments of which additional countries may reach new agreements before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$337,796
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 17 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "México" con 29%, seguido de "Reino Unido" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 29¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" ha generado $337.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?", explora los 17 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" es "México" con 29%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reino Unido" con 25%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.