This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 because recent indirect talks through Pakistani and Qatari mediators have remained largely virtual or low-profile amid fragile ceasefire extensions and lingering disputes over nuclear commitments and the Strait of Hormuz. Switzerland leads among specific venues due to its established role hosting prior Geneva rounds in early 2026. Pakistan ranks next, reflecting Islamabad's active facilitation of April talks and ongoing prime ministerial involvement in pushing framework agreements. Qatar's position stems from recent high-level Qatari delegations engaging Tehran on confidence-building measures. These probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing mediator access, venue neutrality, and the compressed timeline before the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 because recent indirect talks through Pakistani and Qatari mediators have remained largely virtual or low-profile amid fragile ceasefire extensions and lingering disputes over nuclear commitments and the Strait of Hormuz. Switzerland leads among specific venues due to its established role hosting prior Geneva rounds in early 2026. Pakistan ranks next, reflecting Islamabad's active facilitation of April talks and ongoing prime ministerial involvement in pushing framework agreements. Qatar's position stems from recent high-level Qatari delegations engaging Tehran on confidence-building measures. These probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing mediator access, venue neutrality, and the compressed timeline before the end of June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 12 2026
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
May 29 2026
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
May 28 2026
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 16%15%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling a breakthrough in talks. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland, with prices for Switzerland rising and Pakistan declining.
May 23 2026
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
May 23 2026
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland jumps to 14%13%
Trump's announcement of significant progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted optimism for diplomatic meetings, particularly increasing confidence in Switzerland as the venue.
May 23 2026
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
Apr 28 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
Apr 24 2026
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the meeting location and progress.
Apr 20 2026
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for second round of US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 57%6%
After the blockade, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a second round of talks, with Islamabad and Geneva as potential venues. This speculation caused some price movement, with Islamabad remaining favored but Geneva gaining slight attention.
Apr 13 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
Apr 13 2026
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
Apr 12 2026
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 because recent indirect talks through Pakistani and Qatari mediators have remained largely virtual or low-profile amid fragile ceasefire extensions and lingering disputes over nuclear commitments and the Strait of Hormuz. Switzerland leads among specific venues due to its established role hosting prior Geneva rounds in early 2026. Pakistan ranks next, reflecting Islamabad's active facilitation of April talks and ongoing prime ministerial involvement in pushing framework agreements. Qatar's position stems from recent high-level Qatari delegations engaging Tehran on confidence-building measures. These probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing mediator access, venue neutrality, and the compressed timeline before the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 because recent indirect talks through Pakistani and Qatari mediators have remained largely virtual or low-profile amid fragile ceasefire extensions and lingering disputes over nuclear commitments and the Strait of Hormuz. Switzerland leads among specific venues due to its established role hosting prior Geneva rounds in early 2026. Pakistan ranks next, reflecting Islamabad's active facilitation of April talks and ongoing prime ministerial involvement in pushing framework agreements. Qatar's position stems from recent high-level Qatari delegations engaging Tehran on confidence-building measures. These probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing mediator access, venue neutrality, and the compressed timeline before the end of June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 12 2026
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
May 29 2026
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
May 28 2026
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 16%15%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling a breakthrough in talks. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland, with prices for Switzerland rising and Pakistan declining.
May 23 2026
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
May 23 2026
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland jumps to 14%13%
Trump's announcement of significant progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted optimism for diplomatic meetings, particularly increasing confidence in Switzerland as the venue.
May 23 2026
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
Apr 28 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
Apr 24 2026
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the meeting location and progress.
Apr 20 2026
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for second round of US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 57%6%
After the blockade, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a second round of talks, with Islamabad and Geneva as potential venues. This speculation caused some price movement, with Islamabad remaining favored but Geneva gaining slight attention.
Apr 13 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
Apr 13 2026
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
Apr 12 2026
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin reunión antes del 30 de junio" con 36%, seguido de "Suiza" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 36¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" ha generado $9.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" es "Sin reunión antes del 30 de junio" con 36%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Suiza" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $9.6 million operados en “¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 36¢ para "Sin reunión antes del 30 de junio" en el mercado "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 36% de que "Sin reunión antes del 30 de junio" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 36¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 64¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Jun 30, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" tiene una comunidad activa de 143 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Dónde tendrá lugar la próxima reunión diplomática entre Estados Unidos e Irán?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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