Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's firm rejection of concessions forgoing NATO membership before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in mid-April 2026 that Ukraine's accession remains unlikely in the near term due to opposition from allies including Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, prioritizing alliance consensus over rapid expansion. President Zelenskyy has dismissed "NATO light" alternatives, insisting on full membership as a security imperative, with no formalized pledge emerging from recent Geneva and Berlin negotiations despite Russian demands for neutrality. Upcoming June 2026 deadlines in related talks add pressure, but Kyiv's constitutional NATO aspirations and Western security guarantee discussions have not yielded the required agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$86,535 Vol.
$86,535 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$86,535 Vol.
$86,535 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's firm rejection of concessions forgoing NATO membership before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in mid-April 2026 that Ukraine's accession remains unlikely in the near term due to opposition from allies including Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, prioritizing alliance consensus over rapid expansion. President Zelenskyy has dismissed "NATO light" alternatives, insisting on full membership as a security imperative, with no formalized pledge emerging from recent Geneva and Berlin negotiations despite Russian demands for neutrality. Upcoming June 2026 deadlines in related talks add pressure, but Kyiv's constitutional NATO aspirations and Western security guarantee discussions have not yielded the required agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volumen
$86,535Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's firm rejection of concessions forgoing NATO membership before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in mid-April 2026 that Ukraine's accession remains unlikely in the near term due to opposition from allies including Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, prioritizing alliance consensus over rapid expansion. President Zelenskyy has dismissed "NATO light" alternatives, insisting on full membership as a security imperative, with no formalized pledge emerging from recent Geneva and Berlin negotiations despite Russian demands for neutrality. Upcoming June 2026 deadlines in related talks add pressure, but Kyiv's constitutional NATO aspirations and Western security guarantee discussions have not yielded the required agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$86,535Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's firm rejection of concessions forgoing NATO membership before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in mid-April 2026 that Ukraine's accession remains unlikely in the near term due to opposition from allies including Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, prioritizing alliance consensus over rapid expansion. President Zelenskyy has dismissed "NATO light" alternatives, insisting on full membership as a security imperative, with no formalized pledge emerging from recent Geneva and Berlin negotiations despite Russian demands for neutrality. Upcoming June 2026 deadlines in related talks add pressure, but Kyiv's constitutional NATO aspirations and Western security guarantee discussions have not yielded the required agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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