Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 34% for first, driven by year-to-date global surface air temperatures through March—ranking fourth-warmest January-March per NOAA—trailing 2024's record start but buoyed by emerging El Niño conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño onset in May-July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global anomalies via warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, as seen in 2023-24. Recent Copernicus data shows March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March (1.48°C above pre-industrial), with April oceans second-hottest; accelerating forcings from reduced aerosols and rising greenhouse gases further support top-two positioning, though model uncertainty leaves room for variability. Watch NOAA's April report and June ENSO update for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 56%
1 34%
4 4.3%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.6%
$2,713,580 Vol.
$2,713,580 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
34%
2
56%
3
3%
4
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
4%
2 56%
1 34%
4 4.3%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.6%
$2,713,580 Vol.
$2,713,580 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$436,816 Vol.
34%
2
$305,676 Vol.
56%
3
$400,249 Vol.
3%
4
$400,366 Vol.
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$714,032 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$456,441 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 34% for first, driven by year-to-date global surface air temperatures through March—ranking fourth-warmest January-March per NOAA—trailing 2024's record start but buoyed by emerging El Niño conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño onset in May-July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global anomalies via warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, as seen in 2023-24. Recent Copernicus data shows March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March (1.48°C above pre-industrial), with April oceans second-hottest; accelerating forcings from reduced aerosols and rising greenhouse gases further support top-two positioning, though model uncertainty leaves room for variability. Watch NOAA's April report and June ENSO update for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,713,580Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 34% for first, driven by year-to-date global surface air temperatures through March—ranking fourth-warmest January-March per NOAA—trailing 2024's record start but buoyed by emerging El Niño conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño onset in May-July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global anomalies via warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, as seen in 2023-24. Recent Copernicus data shows March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March (1.48°C above pre-industrial), with April oceans second-hottest; accelerating forcings from reduced aerosols and rising greenhouse gases further support top-two positioning, though model uncertainty leaves room for variability. Watch NOAA's April report and June ENSO update for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,713,580Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 34% for first, driven by year-to-date global surface air temperatures through March—ranking fourth-warmest January-March per NOAA—trailing 2024's record start but buoyed by emerging El Niño conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño onset in May-July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global anomalies via warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, as seen in 2023-24. Recent Copernicus data shows March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March (1.48°C above pre-industrial), with April oceans second-hottest; accelerating forcings from reduced aerosols and rising greenhouse gases further support top-two positioning, though model uncertainty leaves room for variability. Watch NOAA's April report and June ENSO update for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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