Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 press conference, confirming his chair term expires May 15 with plans to remain as a Board of Governors member until at least 2028, drives trader consensus toward a 94% implied probability of departure in the May 15–22 window. This aligns with historical precedents for Fed leadership transitions, where incumbents step down upon term end pending Senate confirmation of a presidential nominee—President Trump has signaled a successor announcement soon, with Kevin Warsh frequently cited. Standard procedural timelines, including nomination review and hearings, support this frontrunner absent acceleration. Potential challenges include expedited Senate approval, an early resignation, or rare executive removal attempts, though legal barriers to mid-term ousters remain significant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 95.3%
May 23–29 1.5%
Before May 15 <1%
May 30–June 5 <1%
$71,228 Vol.
$71,228 Vol.
3 jul 2026
Before May 15
1%
May 15–22
95%
May 23–29
2%
May 30–June 5
1%
June 6–12
<1%
June 13–19
<1%
June 20–26
<1%
June 27–July 3
<1%
After July 3
<1%
May 15–22 95.3%
May 23–29 1.5%
Before May 15 <1%
May 30–June 5 <1%
$71,228 Vol.
$71,228 Vol.
3 jul 2026
Before May 15
$9,570 Vol.
1%
May 15–22
$27,556 Vol.
95%
May 23–29
$4,805 Vol.
2%
May 30–June 5
$3,447 Vol.
1%
June 6–12
$4,674 Vol.
<1%
June 13–19
$4,165 Vol.
<1%
June 20–26
$7,736 Vol.
<1%
June 27–July 3
$2,334 Vol.
<1%
After July 3
$6,941 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 press conference, confirming his chair term expires May 15 with plans to remain as a Board of Governors member until at least 2028, drives trader consensus toward a 94% implied probability of departure in the May 15–22 window. This aligns with historical precedents for Fed leadership transitions, where incumbents step down upon term end pending Senate confirmation of a presidential nominee—President Trump has signaled a successor announcement soon, with Kevin Warsh frequently cited. Standard procedural timelines, including nomination review and hearings, support this frontrunner absent acceleration. Potential challenges include expedited Senate approval, an early resignation, or rare executive removal attempts, though legal barriers to mid-term ousters remain significant.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$71,228Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 press conference, confirming his chair term expires May 15 with plans to remain as a Board of Governors member until at least 2028, drives trader consensus toward a 94% implied probability of departure in the May 15–22 window. This aligns with historical precedents for Fed leadership transitions, where incumbents step down upon term end pending Senate confirmation of a presidential nominee—President Trump has signaled a successor announcement soon, with Kevin Warsh frequently cited. Standard procedural timelines, including nomination review and hearings, support this frontrunner absent acceleration. Potential challenges include expedited Senate approval, an early resignation, or rare executive removal attempts, though legal barriers to mid-term ousters remain significant.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$71,228Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 press conference, confirming his chair term expires May 15 with plans to remain as a Board of Governors member until at least 2028, drives trader consensus toward a 94% implied probability of departure in the May 15–22 window. This aligns with historical precedents for Fed leadership transitions, where incumbents step down upon term end pending Senate confirmation of a presidential nominee—President Trump has signaled a successor announcement soon, with Kevin Warsh frequently cited. Standard procedural timelines, including nomination review and hearings, support this frontrunner absent acceleration. Potential challenges include expedited Senate approval, an early resignation, or rare executive removal attempts, though legal barriers to mid-term ousters remain significant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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