**US military action against Cuba remains a live possibility driven by the Trump administration’s post-Venezuela regime-change push and an ongoing oil blockade that has triggered severe Cuban energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain.** Following the January 2026 Maduro capture and related executive order imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, the administration has combined sanctions escalation with explicit threats from President Trump and Secretary Rubio, plus visible military moves including the USS Nimitz carrier group entering the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and Marine rotations. The May indictment of Raúl Castro on 1996 charges is widely viewed as potential justification mirroring the Venezuela case, though bilateral talks continue amid Cuban warnings of heavy casualties. Congressional Democrats have introduced War Powers resolutions to constrain unilateral action, while the administration retains positioned assets and flexibility. Any shift hinges on negotiation outcomes, Cuban responses, or new executive decisions before the market’s resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acción militar de Estados Unidos contra Cuba por parte de…?
¿Acción militar de Estados Unidos contra Cuba por parte de…?
$6,040,748 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
43%
$6,040,748 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$3,861,643 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba remains a live possibility driven by the Trump administration’s post-Venezuela regime-change push and an ongoing oil blockade that has triggered severe Cuban energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain.** Following the January 2026 Maduro capture and related executive order imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, the administration has combined sanctions escalation with explicit threats from President Trump and Secretary Rubio, plus visible military moves including the USS Nimitz carrier group entering the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and Marine rotations. The May indictment of Raúl Castro on 1996 charges is widely viewed as potential justification mirroring the Venezuela case, though bilateral talks continue amid Cuban warnings of heavy casualties. Congressional Democrats have introduced War Powers resolutions to constrain unilateral action, while the administration retains positioned assets and flexibility. Any shift hinges on negotiation outcomes, Cuban responses, or new executive decisions before the market’s resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$6,040,748Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba remains a live possibility driven by the Trump administration’s post-Venezuela regime-change push and an ongoing oil blockade that has triggered severe Cuban energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain.** Following the January 2026 Maduro capture and related executive order imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, the administration has combined sanctions escalation with explicit threats from President Trump and Secretary Rubio, plus visible military moves including the USS Nimitz carrier group entering the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and Marine rotations. The May indictment of Raúl Castro on 1996 charges is widely viewed as potential justification mirroring the Venezuela case, though bilateral talks continue amid Cuban warnings of heavy casualties. Congressional Democrats have introduced War Powers resolutions to constrain unilateral action, while the administration retains positioned assets and flexibility. Any shift hinges on negotiation outcomes, Cuban responses, or new executive decisions before the market’s resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$6,040,748Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military action against Cuba remains a live possibility driven by the Trump administration’s post-Venezuela regime-change push and an ongoing oil blockade that has triggered severe Cuban energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain.** Following the January 2026 Maduro capture and related executive order imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, the administration has combined sanctions escalation with explicit threats from President Trump and Secretary Rubio, plus visible military moves including the USS Nimitz carrier group entering the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and Marine rotations. The May indictment of Raúl Castro on 1996 charges is widely viewed as potential justification mirroring the Venezuela case, though bilateral talks continue amid Cuban warnings of heavy casualties. Congressional Democrats have introduced War Powers resolutions to constrain unilateral action, while the administration retains positioned assets and flexibility. Any shift hinges on negotiation outcomes, Cuban responses, or new executive decisions before the market’s resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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