US military signaling toward Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an energy embargo that severed Venezuelan and Mexican oil supplies, triggering severe fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic contraction on the island. Military assets positioned in the Caribbean, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine Expeditionary Units, alongside stepped-up surveillance flights and intelligence operations, provide operational readiness for strikes or targeted operations. Parallel diplomatic moves—indictments against regime figures such as Raúl Castro, sanctions via executive order, and intermittent negotiations offering aid for reforms—have kept pressure on Havana while leaving room for a negotiated outcome. Trader probabilities around 40% for action by December 31 reflect uncertainty over whether economic coercion will suffice or if stalled talks and Cuban countermeasures, such as reported drone acquisitions, will prompt escalation before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acción militar de Estados Unidos contra Cuba por parte de…?
¿Acción militar de Estados Unidos contra Cuba por parte de…?
$6,040,748 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
43%
$6,040,748 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$3,861,643 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military signaling toward Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an energy embargo that severed Venezuelan and Mexican oil supplies, triggering severe fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic contraction on the island. Military assets positioned in the Caribbean, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine Expeditionary Units, alongside stepped-up surveillance flights and intelligence operations, provide operational readiness for strikes or targeted operations. Parallel diplomatic moves—indictments against regime figures such as Raúl Castro, sanctions via executive order, and intermittent negotiations offering aid for reforms—have kept pressure on Havana while leaving room for a negotiated outcome. Trader probabilities around 40% for action by December 31 reflect uncertainty over whether economic coercion will suffice or if stalled talks and Cuban countermeasures, such as reported drone acquisitions, will prompt escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$6,040,748Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military signaling toward Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an energy embargo that severed Venezuelan and Mexican oil supplies, triggering severe fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic contraction on the island. Military assets positioned in the Caribbean, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine Expeditionary Units, alongside stepped-up surveillance flights and intelligence operations, provide operational readiness for strikes or targeted operations. Parallel diplomatic moves—indictments against regime figures such as Raúl Castro, sanctions via executive order, and intermittent negotiations offering aid for reforms—have kept pressure on Havana while leaving room for a negotiated outcome. Trader probabilities around 40% for action by December 31 reflect uncertainty over whether economic coercion will suffice or if stalled talks and Cuban countermeasures, such as reported drone acquisitions, will prompt escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$6,040,748Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military signaling toward Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an energy embargo that severed Venezuelan and Mexican oil supplies, triggering severe fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic contraction on the island. Military assets positioned in the Caribbean, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine Expeditionary Units, alongside stepped-up surveillance flights and intelligence operations, provide operational readiness for strikes or targeted operations. Parallel diplomatic moves—indictments against regime figures such as Raúl Castro, sanctions via executive order, and intermittent negotiations offering aid for reforms—have kept pressure on Havana while leaving room for a negotiated outcome. Trader probabilities around 40% for action by December 31 reflect uncertainty over whether economic coercion will suffice or if stalled talks and Cuban countermeasures, such as reported drone acquisitions, will prompt escalation before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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