**US government policy has shown no movement toward formal recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader through mid-2026.** The Trump administration has issued no official statements, State Department actions, or diplomatic steps endorsing him as head of state or transitional authority. Public remarks from President Trump have described Pahlavi positively in personal terms while questioning his broad internal support and preferring an organic Iranian figure to emerge. Pahlavi has continued active outreach, including addresses at CPAC and the Munich Security Conference urging regime-change support and transitional recognition, alongside pledges on Israel ties and economic cooperation. These efforts align with his role as a prominent exiled opposition voice amid protests and US-Israel strikes, yet they have not produced concrete US policy shifts. Similar prediction markets confirm the absence of verifiable recognition criteria being met. Trader consensus at 95% against reflects these structural and diplomatic realities: formal leader recognition requires explicit executive or legislative action that has not occurred and faces significant barriers given ongoing negotiations, internal Iranian dynamics, and administration caution. Late-2026 developments could still alter trajectories, but current evidence points to continued non-recognition.