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Geopolítica·Irán

¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?
Geopolítica·Irán

¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket

$559,022 Vol.

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket

$559,022 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 89.5% implied probability for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's ongoing resilience despite escalated US and Israeli military actions in the 2026 Iran war, including recent airstrikes. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified outreach, clashing with media in Berlin on April 23 over regime change and Israel ties, issuing warnings to Iran's military on April 7, and appearing on Fox News around April 28 to decry the regime's radicalism amid US strikes. However, no official US statements endorse Pahlavi as leader, with policy focused on weakening the regime through force rather than premature diplomatic recognition absent a full transition. Late-breaking regime collapse or policy pivot could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$559,022
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 89.5% implied probability for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's ongoing resilience despite escalated US and Israeli military actions in the 2026 Iran war, including recent airstrikes. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified outreach, clashing with media in Berlin on April 23 over regime change and Israel ties, issuing warnings to Iran's military on April 7, and appearing on Fox News around April 28 to decry the regime's radicalism amid US strikes. However, no official US statements endorse Pahlavi as leader, with policy focused on weakening the regime through force rather than premature diplomatic recognition absent a full transition. Late-breaking regime collapse or policy pivot could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$559,022
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" ha generado $559K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.