**Under the Trump administration, US policy toward Cuba has centered on escalating sanctions to restrict oil supplies and pressure the government, making near-term relief unlikely ahead of the June 30 deadline.** Recent actions include the June 11, 2026, designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo (CUPET) under Executive Order 14404, which blocks US assets and prohibits dealings by entities with US operations. This builds on the January 2026 national emergency declaration (EO 14380) authorizing tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba and the May 2026 expansion of secondary sanctions targeting energy, defense, and related sectors. The administration has blocked proposed fuel shipments, maintained restrictions despite Cuba’s energy crisis and international calls for easing, and tied any policy shift to broader demands such as governance changes. No official announcements, licensing expansions, or diplomatic signals in the past month have indicated imminent oil sanction relief. Trader consensus reflected in the 88% probability on “No” aligns with this sustained maximum-pressure approach and the absence of countervailing developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$25,310 Vol.
$25,310 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$25,310 Vol.
$25,310 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Under the Trump administration, US policy toward Cuba has centered on escalating sanctions to restrict oil supplies and pressure the government, making near-term relief unlikely ahead of the June 30 deadline.** Recent actions include the June 11, 2026, designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo (CUPET) under Executive Order 14404, which blocks US assets and prohibits dealings by entities with US operations. This builds on the January 2026 national emergency declaration (EO 14380) authorizing tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba and the May 2026 expansion of secondary sanctions targeting energy, defense, and related sectors.
The administration has blocked proposed fuel shipments, maintained restrictions despite Cuba’s energy crisis and international calls for easing, and tied any policy shift to broader demands such as governance changes. No official announcements, licensing expansions, or diplomatic signals in the past month have indicated imminent oil sanction relief. Trader consensus reflected in the 88% probability on “No” aligns with this sustained maximum-pressure approach and the absence of countervailing developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$25,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Under the Trump administration, US policy toward Cuba has centered on escalating sanctions to restrict oil supplies and pressure the government, making near-term relief unlikely ahead of the June 30 deadline.** Recent actions include the June 11, 2026, designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo (CUPET) under Executive Order 14404, which blocks US assets and prohibits dealings by entities with US operations. This builds on the January 2026 national emergency declaration (EO 14380) authorizing tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba and the May 2026 expansion of secondary sanctions targeting energy, defense, and related sectors.
The administration has blocked proposed fuel shipments, maintained restrictions despite Cuba’s energy crisis and international calls for easing, and tied any policy shift to broader demands such as governance changes. No official announcements, licensing expansions, or diplomatic signals in the past month have indicated imminent oil sanction relief. Trader consensus reflected in the 88% probability on “No” aligns with this sustained maximum-pressure approach and the absence of countervailing developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$25,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Under the Trump administration, US policy toward Cuba has centered on escalating sanctions to restrict oil supplies and pressure the government, making near-term relief unlikely ahead of the June 30 deadline.** Recent actions include the June 11, 2026, designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo (CUPET) under Executive Order 14404, which blocks US assets and prohibits dealings by entities with US operations. This builds on the January 2026 national emergency declaration (EO 14380) authorizing tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba and the May 2026 expansion of secondary sanctions targeting energy, defense, and related sectors. The administration has blocked proposed fuel shipments, maintained restrictions despite Cuba’s energy crisis and international calls for easing, and tied any policy shift to broader demands such as governance changes. No official announcements, licensing expansions, or diplomatic signals in the past month have indicated imminent oil sanction relief. Trader consensus reflected in the 88% probability on “No” aligns with this sustained maximum-pressure approach and the absence of countervailing developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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