**The 90% "No" odds reflect the Trump administration’s sustained maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, which has featured escalating sanctions rather than any relief.** Since January 2026, executive orders have declared a national emergency, authorized tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba, and expanded secondary sanctions on Cuban entities in the energy, defense, and financial sectors. Most recently, on June 11, 2026, the Treasury and State Department sanctioned Cuba’s state-owned oil company, Unión Cuba-Petróleo, freezing assets and prohibiting dealings—actions that further tightened the effective oil blockade amid Cuba’s ongoing fuel shortages and blackouts. Diplomatic talks have occurred, with Cuba releasing prisoners as a gesture, but these have not produced sanction easing or policy reversal. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline and the administration continuing designations and enforcement rather than issuing licenses or waivers, traders see no credible pathway for an announcement of relief. Late-breaking developments would need to overcome the current trajectory of tightening measures to shift the consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$25,310 Vol.
$25,310 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$25,310 Vol.
$25,310 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 90% "No" odds reflect the Trump administration’s sustained maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, which has featured escalating sanctions rather than any relief.** Since January 2026, executive orders have declared a national emergency, authorized tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba, and expanded secondary sanctions on Cuban entities in the energy, defense, and financial sectors. Most recently, on June 11, 2026, the Treasury and State Department sanctioned Cuba’s state-owned oil company, Unión Cuba-Petróleo, freezing assets and prohibiting dealings—actions that further tightened the effective oil blockade amid Cuba’s ongoing fuel shortages and blackouts.
Diplomatic talks have occurred, with Cuba releasing prisoners as a gesture, but these have not produced sanction easing or policy reversal. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline and the administration continuing designations and enforcement rather than issuing licenses or waivers, traders see no credible pathway for an announcement of relief. Late-breaking developments would need to overcome the current trajectory of tightening measures to shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$25,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 90% "No" odds reflect the Trump administration’s sustained maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, which has featured escalating sanctions rather than any relief.** Since January 2026, executive orders have declared a national emergency, authorized tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba, and expanded secondary sanctions on Cuban entities in the energy, defense, and financial sectors. Most recently, on June 11, 2026, the Treasury and State Department sanctioned Cuba’s state-owned oil company, Unión Cuba-Petróleo, freezing assets and prohibiting dealings—actions that further tightened the effective oil blockade amid Cuba’s ongoing fuel shortages and blackouts.
Diplomatic talks have occurred, with Cuba releasing prisoners as a gesture, but these have not produced sanction easing or policy reversal. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline and the administration continuing designations and enforcement rather than issuing licenses or waivers, traders see no credible pathway for an announcement of relief. Late-breaking developments would need to overcome the current trajectory of tightening measures to shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$25,310Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 90% "No" odds reflect the Trump administration’s sustained maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, which has featured escalating sanctions rather than any relief.** Since January 2026, executive orders have declared a national emergency, authorized tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba, and expanded secondary sanctions on Cuban entities in the energy, defense, and financial sectors. Most recently, on June 11, 2026, the Treasury and State Department sanctioned Cuba’s state-owned oil company, Unión Cuba-Petróleo, freezing assets and prohibiting dealings—actions that further tightened the effective oil blockade amid Cuba’s ongoing fuel shortages and blackouts. Diplomatic talks have occurred, with Cuba releasing prisoners as a gesture, but these have not produced sanction easing or policy reversal. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline and the administration continuing designations and enforcement rather than issuing licenses or waivers, traders see no credible pathway for an announcement of relief. Late-breaking developments would need to overcome the current trajectory of tightening measures to shift the consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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