Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.7% "No" that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and rejection of neutrality pledges amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated on April 9 that membership is unlikely soon due to opposition from allies including the US, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations demanding such a concession. Ongoing battlefield stalemates and Zelenskyy's insistence on full alliance integration reinforce this positioning, though a sudden escalation in trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks could theoretically prompt a pre-deadline neutrality deal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$31,484 Vol.
$31,484 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$31,484 Vol.
$31,484 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.7% "No" that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and rejection of neutrality pledges amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated on April 9 that membership is unlikely soon due to opposition from allies including the US, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations demanding such a concession. Ongoing battlefield stalemates and Zelenskyy's insistence on full alliance integration reinforce this positioning, though a sudden escalation in trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks could theoretically prompt a pre-deadline neutrality deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Volumen
$31,484Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.7% "No" that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and rejection of neutrality pledges amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated on April 9 that membership is unlikely soon due to opposition from allies including the US, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations demanding such a concession. Ongoing battlefield stalemates and Zelenskyy's insistence on full alliance integration reinforce this positioning, though a sudden escalation in trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks could theoretically prompt a pre-deadline neutrality deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$31,484Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.7% "No" that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and rejection of neutrality pledges amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated on April 9 that membership is unlikely soon due to opposition from allies including the US, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations demanding such a concession. Ongoing battlefield stalemates and Zelenskyy's insistence on full alliance integration reinforce this positioning, though a sudden escalation in trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks could theoretically prompt a pre-deadline neutrality deal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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