Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia have produced no comprehensive ceasefire or settlement as of mid-2026, despite a Trump administration push for an agreement by June and early discussions of pairing any deal with Ukrainian elections or a referendum. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, Ukrainian neutrality, and Russian demands remain unresolved, with multiple rounds of trilateral negotiations stalling and attention shifting elsewhere. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has stated that major territorial concessions would require a national referendum, but no framework meeting these conditions has advanced. Persistent military operations, limited POW exchanges, and maximalist positions from both sides continue to block the diplomatic steps needed for such a vote before 2027, supporting traders' strong consensus against passage.