Stalled US-mediated negotiations and Russia's rejection of direct leader-level talks explain the strong trader consensus against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Multiple trilateral rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief ceasefires, with core disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees remaining unresolved. Zelenskyy's June 4 open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting with Putin drew a cool Kremlin response emphasizing mismatched actions, prompting Kyiv to seek greater European involvement as Washington reduced its mediation role. Any deal involving frontline freezes or cessions would require parliamentary approval or a national referendum, yet Ukrainian officials have signaled such terms face steep domestic opposition absent ironclad guarantees, leaving insufficient time for the necessary ceasefire and political process.