Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, driven by stalled negotiations and maximalist stances persisting after US-brokered talks collapsed without breakthrough in February. Russia's latest proposal for a limited May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—tied to parade security rather than structural peace—drew no Ukrainian response as of April 30, with Kremlin spokesman Peskov signaling no urgency to resume broader discussions. Despite Ukraine's openness to ceasefires and intelligence chief Budanov's mid-April hints at converging positions, frozen diplomacy awaits US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, amid historical patterns of abrupt halts like Geneva meetings. Ongoing frontline momentum and territorial disputes reinforce skepticism of a timely parlay resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$425,993 Vol.
$425,993 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$425,993 Vol.
$425,993 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, driven by stalled negotiations and maximalist stances persisting after US-brokered talks collapsed without breakthrough in February. Russia's latest proposal for a limited May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—tied to parade security rather than structural peace—drew no Ukrainian response as of April 30, with Kremlin spokesman Peskov signaling no urgency to resume broader discussions. Despite Ukraine's openness to ceasefires and intelligence chief Budanov's mid-April hints at converging positions, frozen diplomacy awaits US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, amid historical patterns of abrupt halts like Geneva meetings. Ongoing frontline momentum and territorial disputes reinforce skepticism of a timely parlay resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Mercado abierto: Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Volumen
$425,993Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, driven by stalled negotiations and maximalist stances persisting after US-brokered talks collapsed without breakthrough in February. Russia's latest proposal for a limited May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—tied to parade security rather than structural peace—drew no Ukrainian response as of April 30, with Kremlin spokesman Peskov signaling no urgency to resume broader discussions. Despite Ukraine's openness to ceasefires and intelligence chief Budanov's mid-April hints at converging positions, frozen diplomacy awaits US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, amid historical patterns of abrupt halts like Geneva meetings. Ongoing frontline momentum and territorial disputes reinforce skepticism of a timely parlay resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volumen
$425,993Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, driven by stalled negotiations and maximalist stances persisting after US-brokered talks collapsed without breakthrough in February. Russia's latest proposal for a limited May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—tied to parade security rather than structural peace—drew no Ukrainian response as of April 30, with Kremlin spokesman Peskov signaling no urgency to resume broader discussions. Despite Ukraine's openness to ceasefires and intelligence chief Budanov's mid-April hints at converging positions, frozen diplomacy awaits US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, amid historical patterns of abrupt halts like Geneva meetings. Ongoing frontline momentum and territorial disputes reinforce skepticism of a timely parlay resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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