President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$669,967 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
9%
$669,967 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$42,073 Vol.
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$7,044 Vol.
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$10,632 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$669,967Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$669,967Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities set the primary context for this market, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized evaluations of subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than explosive tests. The United States has upheld its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining readiness timelines of up to 36 months for any underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms-control constraint, but congressional funding priorities, annual stockpile assessments confirming no technical requirement for yield-producing tests, and diplomatic considerations have kept probabilities low. No full-scale test preparations have advanced as of mid-2026, and any shift would require major new appropriations or policy changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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