The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warheads. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by year-end 2026, driven by NNSA's April 9 FY2027 budget request—$27.4 billion for weapons activities but no dedicated testing line item—despite March 24 testimony from a top official not ruling out underground tests amid concerns over China's alleged clandestine activities and Russia's CTBT withdrawal. Congressional NDAA debates and Nevada lawmakers' opposition pose hurdles, while escalating tensions with nuclear peers like North Korea could spur executive action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$652,202 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
2%
30 de septiembre de 2026
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
12%
$652,202 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$28,600 Vol.
2%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$2,657 Vol.
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$10,726 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warheads. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by year-end 2026, driven by NNSA's April 9 FY2027 budget request—$27.4 billion for weapons activities but no dedicated testing line item—despite March 24 testimony from a top official not ruling out underground tests amid concerns over China's alleged clandestine activities and Russia's CTBT withdrawal. Congressional NDAA debates and Nevada lawmakers' opposition pose hurdles, while escalating tensions with nuclear peers like North Korea could spur executive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$652,202Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warheads. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by year-end 2026, driven by NNSA's April 9 FY2027 budget request—$27.4 billion for weapons activities but no dedicated testing line item—despite March 24 testimony from a top official not ruling out underground tests amid concerns over China's alleged clandestine activities and Russia's CTBT withdrawal. Congressional NDAA debates and Nevada lawmakers' opposition pose hurdles, while escalating tensions with nuclear peers like North Korea could spur executive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$652,202Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warheads. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by year-end 2026, driven by NNSA's April 9 FY2027 budget request—$27.4 billion for weapons activities but no dedicated testing line item—despite March 24 testimony from a top official not ruling out underground tests amid concerns over China's alleged clandestine activities and Russia's CTBT withdrawal. Congressional NDAA debates and Nevada lawmakers' opposition pose hurdles, while escalating tensions with nuclear peers like North Korea could spur executive action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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