**Traders assign an 89.5% probability that President Tamás Sulyok will remain in office past June 30, reflecting the procedural hurdles and timeline for any removal effort.** Following Péter Magyar’s Tisza party landslide in the April 2026 elections, the new prime minister publicly demanded Sulyok’s resignation by May 31, labeling the president—elected by the prior Fidesz-dominated parliament—an Orbán appointee who failed to represent national unity. Sulyok refused, citing his constitutional mandate through 2029 and referring the matter to the Venice Commission. Magyar then announced plans to use the government’s two-thirds parliamentary majority for constitutional amendments and legislative steps to oust Sulyok, estimating the full process would require roughly one month. With that timeline starting in early June, completion before the market’s June 30 cutoff appears structurally difficult absent an unforeseen acceleration or voluntary exit. No subsequent developments have altered this trajectory, leaving the implied probability anchored on the deliberate pace of constitutional change in Hungary’s parliamentary system.