**Recent political developments center on Hungary’s post-election transition.** Following Péter Magyar’s Tisza party landslide victory in the April 2026 parliamentary election, which ended Viktor Orbán’s long tenure, the new government has sought to replace officials appointed under the prior Fidesz-led administration. President Tamás Sulyok, elected by parliament in early 2024 for a five-year term, has refused repeated calls to resign, citing constitutional requirements and referring the matter to the Venice Commission for review. Magyar set a May 31 deadline and, after Sulyok’s refusal, announced on June 1 plans to amend the Fundamental Law (constitution) using the governing coalition’s two-thirds majority. Officials described the full removal process as likely requiring roughly one month. With the June 30 cutoff now less than three weeks away and no completed constitutional change or resignation confirmed, traders assign an 87% probability that Sulyok remains in office by that date. The primary driver is the procedural timeline for legislative action amid ongoing institutional resistance.