Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 2-4, 2026, driven by trackers like xtracker showing a recent daily average of 27 over April 24-May 1 (188 total posts), but a sharp slowdown to just 20 posts midway through the April 30-May 2 window. This reflects Musk's erratic posting rhythm—higher mid-week bursts like 30 on April 29, tapering into weekends—without fresh catalysts like Tesla announcements or viral controversies to boost volume. The 65-89 bucket trails at 26%, as sub-20 daily paces dominate late-April data, though unexpected Grok updates or political firestorms could swing odds higher before the May 5 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 53%
65-89 27%
<40 12%
90-114 8%
NUEVO
$24,172 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,172 Vol.
4 may 2026
<40
12%
40-64
53%
65-89
27%
90-114
8%
115-139
4%
140-164
<1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 53%
65-89 27%
<40 12%
90-114 8%
NUEVO
$24,172 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,172 Vol.
4 may 2026
<40
$2,826 Vol.
12%
40-64
$2,504 Vol.
53%
65-89
$886 Vol.
27%
90-114
$7,451 Vol.
8%
115-139
$1,322 Vol.
4%
140-164
$836 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$827 Vol.
1%
190-214
$2,439 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,841 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 2-4, 2026, driven by trackers like xtracker showing a recent daily average of 27 over April 24-May 1 (188 total posts), but a sharp slowdown to just 20 posts midway through the April 30-May 2 window. This reflects Musk's erratic posting rhythm—higher mid-week bursts like 30 on April 29, tapering into weekends—without fresh catalysts like Tesla announcements or viral controversies to boost volume. The 65-89 bucket trails at 26%, as sub-20 daily paces dominate late-April data, though unexpected Grok updates or political firestorms could swing odds higher before the May 5 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volumen
$24,172Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 2-4, 2026, driven by trackers like xtracker showing a recent daily average of 27 over April 24-May 1 (188 total posts), but a sharp slowdown to just 20 posts midway through the April 30-May 2 window. This reflects Musk's erratic posting rhythm—higher mid-week bursts like 30 on April 29, tapering into weekends—without fresh catalysts like Tesla announcements or viral controversies to boost volume. The 65-89 bucket trails at 26%, as sub-20 daily paces dominate late-April data, though unexpected Grok updates or political firestorms could swing odds higher before the May 5 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$24,172Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 40-64 tweet range at 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 2-4, 2026, driven by trackers like xtracker showing a recent daily average of 27 over April 24-May 1 (188 total posts), but a sharp slowdown to just 20 posts midway through the April 30-May 2 window. This reflects Musk's erratic posting rhythm—higher mid-week bursts like 30 on April 29, tapering into weekends—without fresh catalysts like Tesla announcements or viral controversies to boost volume. The 65-89 bucket trails at 26%, as sub-20 daily paces dominate late-April data, though unexpected Grok updates or political firestorms could swing odds higher before the May 5 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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