Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions and heavy showers, particularly around June 15–16, with risks of localized flooding. These patterns, typical of peak monsoon influence, have elevated trader confidence in totals exceeding the long-term June average of roughly 400 mm. While the late-May seasonal outlook favored normal to below-normal rainfall overall, mid-month model updates and observed convective activity have shifted implied probabilities strongly toward the 500 mm+ bin. Historical analogs show June totals frequently amplified by similar troughs or early tropical systems, supporting the current market consensus amid ongoing uncertainty in remaining weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 13%
375-400mm 7%
425-450mm 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
4%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
7%
400-425mm
5%
425-450mm
6%
450-475mm
5%
475-500mm
18%
500mm+
62%
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 13%
375-400mm 7%
425-450mm 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
$486 Vol.
4%
350-375mm
$505 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$468 Vol.
7%
400-425mm
$279 Vol.
5%
425-450mm
$322 Vol.
6%
450-475mm
$383 Vol.
5%
475-500mm
$484 Vol.
18%
500mm+
$894 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions and heavy showers, particularly around June 15–16, with risks of localized flooding. These patterns, typical of peak monsoon influence, have elevated trader confidence in totals exceeding the long-term June average of roughly 400 mm. While the late-May seasonal outlook favored normal to below-normal rainfall overall, mid-month model updates and observed convective activity have shifted implied probabilities strongly toward the 500 mm+ bin. Historical analogs show June totals frequently amplified by similar troughs or early tropical systems, supporting the current market consensus amid ongoing uncertainty in remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volumen
$3,798Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions and heavy showers, particularly around June 15–16, with risks of localized flooding. These patterns, typical of peak monsoon influence, have elevated trader confidence in totals exceeding the long-term June average of roughly 400 mm. While the late-May seasonal outlook favored normal to below-normal rainfall overall, mid-month model updates and observed convective activity have shifted implied probabilities strongly toward the 500 mm+ bin. Historical analogs show June totals frequently amplified by similar troughs or early tropical systems, supporting the current market consensus amid ongoing uncertainty in remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,798Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions and heavy showers, particularly around June 15–16, with risks of localized flooding. These patterns, typical of peak monsoon influence, have elevated trader confidence in totals exceeding the long-term June average of roughly 400 mm. While the late-May seasonal outlook favored normal to below-normal rainfall overall, mid-month model updates and observed convective activity have shifted implied probabilities strongly toward the 500 mm+ bin. Historical analogs show June totals frequently amplified by similar troughs or early tropical systems, supporting the current market consensus amid ongoing uncertainty in remaining weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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