Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (70% implied probability), driven by fresh internal rifts and escalating legal risks. CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in compute spending commitments, and profitability delays until 2030 have sidelined her from key investor talks, signaling organizational unreadiness despite CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 launch. Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit, with his testimony wrapping May 1 and Altman/Brockman up next, seeks to unwind OpenAI's for-profit shift and oust leadership—potentially derailing filings. A blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation buoyed high-cap odds (topping 8.8% for 1.25T–1.5T), but traders price in execution hurdles amid AI hype cooling. Watch trial outcomes and S-1 signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 71%
1.25T–1.5T 8.8%
1,5 billones+ 5.2%
1 billón–1,25 billones 4.6%
$1,610,698 Vol.
$1,610,698 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
3%
1 billón–1,25 billones
5%
1.25T–1.5T
9%
1,5 billones+
5%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
71%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 71%
1.25T–1.5T 8.8%
1,5 billones+ 5.2%
1 billón–1,25 billones 4.6%
$1,610,698 Vol.
$1,610,698 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$261,758 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$143,089 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$137,929 Vol.
3%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$179,923 Vol.
5%
1.25T–1.5T
$493,072 Vol.
9%
1,5 billones+
$97,177 Vol.
5%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$297,751 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (70% implied probability), driven by fresh internal rifts and escalating legal risks. CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in compute spending commitments, and profitability delays until 2030 have sidelined her from key investor talks, signaling organizational unreadiness despite CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 launch. Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit, with his testimony wrapping May 1 and Altman/Brockman up next, seeks to unwind OpenAI's for-profit shift and oust leadership—potentially derailing filings. A blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation buoyed high-cap odds (topping 8.8% for 1.25T–1.5T), but traders price in execution hurdles amid AI hype cooling. Watch trial outcomes and S-1 signals.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,610,698Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (70% implied probability), driven by fresh internal rifts and escalating legal risks. CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in compute spending commitments, and profitability delays until 2030 have sidelined her from key investor talks, signaling organizational unreadiness despite CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 launch. Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit, with his testimony wrapping May 1 and Altman/Brockman up next, seeks to unwind OpenAI's for-profit shift and oust leadership—potentially derailing filings. A blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation buoyed high-cap odds (topping 8.8% for 1.25T–1.5T), but traders price in execution hurdles amid AI hype cooling. Watch trial outcomes and S-1 signals.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,610,698Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (70% implied probability), driven by fresh internal rifts and escalating legal risks. CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in compute spending commitments, and profitability delays until 2030 have sidelined her from key investor talks, signaling organizational unreadiness despite CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 launch. Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit, with his testimony wrapping May 1 and Altman/Brockman up next, seeks to unwind OpenAI's for-profit shift and oust leadership—potentially derailing filings. A blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation buoyed high-cap odds (topping 8.8% for 1.25T–1.5T), but traders price in execution hurdles amid AI hype cooling. Watch trial outcomes and S-1 signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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