Polymarket traders price OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in a dead heat across 500B–1.5T+ bins at 36–38.5% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty post its record $122 billion funding round in March 2026 that cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet tempered by a Wall Street Journal report two days ago revealing missed internal revenue and weekly user targets amid aggressive $600 billion data-center spending plans through 2030. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 IPO timeline, a restructured Microsoft revenue-sharing deal granting more autonomy, and Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit risk execution hiccups, while Anthropic's revenue surge—closing the gap to OpenAI's projected $25 billion annualized run-rate—and secondary-market valuations exceeding $900 billion intensify rivalry. Key differentiators include OpenAI's first-mover ChatGPT dominance versus Anthropic's enterprise-coding edge; resolution hinges on S-1 disclosures and trial outcomes by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado750B–1T 41%
1,25T–1,5T 39%
1.5T+ 38.3%
1T–1.25T 37%
$15,954 Vol.
$15,954 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
13%
500–750 mil millones
37%
750B–1T
41%
1T–1.25T
37%
1,25T–1,5T
39%
1.5T+
38%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
23%
750B–1T 41%
1,25T–1,5T 39%
1.5T+ 38.3%
1T–1.25T 37%
$15,954 Vol.
$15,954 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$97 Vol.
13%
500–750 mil millones
$245 Vol.
37%
750B–1T
$352 Vol.
41%
1T–1.25T
$3,145 Vol.
37%
1,25T–1,5T
$434 Vol.
39%
1.5T+
$275 Vol.
38%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$11,406 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in a dead heat across 500B–1.5T+ bins at 36–38.5% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty post its record $122 billion funding round in March 2026 that cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet tempered by a Wall Street Journal report two days ago revealing missed internal revenue and weekly user targets amid aggressive $600 billion data-center spending plans through 2030. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 IPO timeline, a restructured Microsoft revenue-sharing deal granting more autonomy, and Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit risk execution hiccups, while Anthropic's revenue surge—closing the gap to OpenAI's projected $25 billion annualized run-rate—and secondary-market valuations exceeding $900 billion intensify rivalry. Key differentiators include OpenAI's first-mover ChatGPT dominance versus Anthropic's enterprise-coding edge; resolution hinges on S-1 disclosures and trial outcomes by year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$15,954Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in a dead heat across 500B–1.5T+ bins at 36–38.5% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty post its record $122 billion funding round in March 2026 that cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet tempered by a Wall Street Journal report two days ago revealing missed internal revenue and weekly user targets amid aggressive $600 billion data-center spending plans through 2030. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 IPO timeline, a restructured Microsoft revenue-sharing deal granting more autonomy, and Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit risk execution hiccups, while Anthropic's revenue surge—closing the gap to OpenAI's projected $25 billion annualized run-rate—and secondary-market valuations exceeding $900 billion intensify rivalry. Key differentiators include OpenAI's first-mover ChatGPT dominance versus Anthropic's enterprise-coding edge; resolution hinges on S-1 disclosures and trial outcomes by year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$15,954Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in a dead heat across 500B–1.5T+ bins at 36–38.5% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty post its record $122 billion funding round in March 2026 that cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet tempered by a Wall Street Journal report two days ago revealing missed internal revenue and weekly user targets amid aggressive $600 billion data-center spending plans through 2030. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 IPO timeline, a restructured Microsoft revenue-sharing deal granting more autonomy, and Elon Musk's ongoing lawsuit risk execution hiccups, while Anthropic's revenue surge—closing the gap to OpenAI's projected $25 billion annualized run-rate—and secondary-market valuations exceeding $900 billion intensify rivalry. Key differentiators include OpenAI's first-mover ChatGPT dominance versus Anthropic's enterprise-coding edge; resolution hinges on S-1 disclosures and trial outcomes by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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