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Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

icon for ¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?
Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 33%

Angela Rayner 22%

Andy Burnham 13.2%

Ed Miliband 11.0%

Polymarket

$4,994,612 Vol.

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 33%

Angela Rayner 22%

Andy Burnham 13.2%

Ed Miliband 11.0%

Polymarket

$4,994,612 Vol.

icon for Ningún próximo PM en 2026

Ningún próximo PM en 2026

$245,676 Vol.

33%

icon for Angela Rayner

Angela Rayner

$290,070 Vol.

22%

icon for Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham

$313,654 Vol.

13%

icon for Ed Miliband

Ed Miliband

$194,501 Vol.

11%

icon for Al Carns

Al Carns

$130,470 Vol.

8%

icon for Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting

$78,435 Vol.

7%

icon for Rachel Reeves

Rachel Reeves

$378,823 Vol.

2%

icon for Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage

$723,169 Vol.

2%

icon for Shabana Mahmood

Shabana Mahmood

$219,569 Vol.

1%

icon for Rupert Lowe

Rupert Lowe

$590,808 Vol.

1%

icon for Yvette Cooper

Yvette Cooper

$211,631 Vol.

1%

icon for Lucy Powell

Lucy Powell

$211,206 Vol.

1%

icon for David Lammy

David Lammy

$186,129 Vol.

1%

icon for Bridget Phillipson

Bridget Phillipson

$74,500 Vol.

<1%

icon for Darren Jones

Darren Jones

$136,001 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch

$129,458 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ed Davey

Ed Davey

$165,947 Vol.

<1%

icon for Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

$185,232 Vol.

<1%

icon for Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick

$301,834 Vol.

<1%

icon for James Cleverly

James Cleverly

$229,227 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Speculation over Keir Starmer's leadership intensified after poor local election results, a secret meeting between Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, and Starmer's offer to reinstate Rayner in cabinet to forestall a coup, driving trader consensus to price no premiership change in 2026 at 33%. Rayner leads potential successors at 21.5% on her union affiliations and former deputy experience, despite past tax scrutiny, while Burnham's 13.2% reflects northern popularity and YouGov polling naming him top-rated replacement; Ed Miliband's 11% draws from energy policy profile amid internal clashes. Differentiation hinges on Rayner's left-wing base versus Burnham's broader appeal; support could consolidate via MP no-confidence vote, resignation, or leadership election under Labour rules emphasizing nominations, member ballots, and union affiliates, with a potential reshuffle looming next month.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,994,612
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Speculation over Keir Starmer's leadership intensified after poor local election results, a secret meeting between Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, and Starmer's offer to reinstate Rayner in cabinet to forestall a coup, driving trader consensus to price no premiership change in 2026 at 33%. Rayner leads potential successors at 21.5% on her union affiliations and former deputy experience, despite past tax scrutiny, while Burnham's 13.2% reflects northern popularity and YouGov polling naming him top-rated replacement; Ed Miliband's 11% draws from energy policy profile amid internal clashes. Differentiation hinges on Rayner's left-wing base versus Burnham's broader appeal; support could consolidate via MP no-confidence vote, resignation, or leadership election under Labour rules emphasizing nominations, member ballots, and union affiliates, with a potential reshuffle looming next month.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,994,612
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 20 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 33%, seguido de "Angela Rayner" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 33¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" ha generado $5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?", explora los 20 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 33%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Angela Rayner" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.