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Política·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Política·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 47%

Elly Schlein 12%

Giuseppe Conte 10%

Silvia Salis 8.9%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Giorgia Meloni 47%

Elly Schlein 12%

Giuseppe Conte 10%

Silvia Salis 8.9%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Giorgia Meloni

$2,170 Vol.

47%

Elly Schlein

$430 Vol.

12%

Giuseppe Conte

$427 Vol.

10%

Antonio Tajani

$264 Vol.

1%

Matteo Salvini

$336 Vol.

3%

Guido Crosetto

$348 Vol.

3%

Mario Draghi

$296 Vol.

6%

Silvia Salis

$681 Vol.

9%

Roberto Vannacci

$974 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for remaining Italy's next prime minister, buoyed by her Brothers of Italy party's persistent polling edge and centre-right coalition stability despite a March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reform, where 54% of voters rejected the plan—her first major setback, eroding her aura of invincibility and spurring opposition momentum. Former general Roberto Vannacci's 14.7% reflects his February defection from Matteo Salvini's League to launch a far-right challenge, siphoning votes from the government flank. On the left, Genoa Mayor Silvia Salis surges to 8.9% as a fresh unifying figure post-referendum, outpacing Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein (12.0%) and Five Star Movement's Giuseppe Conte (9.5%), amid speculation of snap elections before the 2027 general vote deadline. Mario Draghi and cabinet figures trail as technocratic or continuity options.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,926
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028
Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for remaining Italy's next prime minister, buoyed by her Brothers of Italy party's persistent polling edge and centre-right coalition stability despite a March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reform, where 54% of voters rejected the plan—her first major setback, eroding her aura of invincibility and spurring opposition momentum. Former general Roberto Vannacci's 14.7% reflects his February defection from Matteo Salvini's League to launch a far-right challenge, siphoning votes from the government flank. On the left, Genoa Mayor Silvia Salis surges to 8.9% as a fresh unifying figure post-referendum, outpacing Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein (12.0%) and Five Star Movement's Giuseppe Conte (9.5%), amid speculation of snap elections before the 2027 general vote deadline. Mario Draghi and cabinet figures trail as technocratic or continuity options.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,926
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028
Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Giorgia Meloni" con 47%, seguido de "Elly Schlein" con 12%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 21, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Next Prime Minister of Italy?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" es "Giorgia Meloni" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Elly Schlein" con 12%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.